X-Message-Number: 10100
Date: Thu, 23 Jul 1998 08:41:24 -0700
From: Peter Merel <>
Subject: Y2K

Like most people, I've been thinking of the y2k problem as just some COBOL
legacy issue that might embarrass the odd bank manager. Last weekend I 
started thinking about problems in firmware, and I've now realized
we're looking at a series of events with catastrophic potential. The 
ones that strike me at the moment are

  * In early to mid 1999, a run on the banks. Probably beginning in Japan,
    depositors will decide to take the sensible precaution of setting aside
    food, water, gasoline and cash to cover the possibility of disruptions
    to vital services during 1/1/00. The newspapers will cover this, it
    will snowball, and, the supply of banknotes being far smaller than
    the supply of bits-representing-money, banks will be unable to cover it.
    Institutional investors will start to draw on their funds and there will
    be a crash of unknown severity.

  * Beginning with 9/9/99, a date significant to legacy systems, there will
    be a series of snafus, denials of service, and technical hiccups. Perhaps
    the worst of these will be the GPS rollover on August 22, which may 
    severely affect navigation systems and bank interest calculations.

  * 1/1/00 itself will produce global disruptions in electrical generation
    and distribution networks, telecommunications, trains, planes and military
    systems. This will affect the availability of vital goods and services,
    including food. Other networks - water and sewage - may also be 
    affected. The length and severity of these disruptions is unpredictable,
    but will likely be sufficient to produce panic, rioting, and firestorms
    in many major cities around the world.

  * Secondary effects will cause economic and infrastructure disruption
    throughout the year 2000. The severity of this disruption is unknown.
    There is a fair chance that many countries will see this as a good
    opportunity to go to war. Further technical disruptions on dates 
    like 2/29/00, which really is a leap-day counter to many embedded 
    leap-calculations, mayuse further destabilization (as if it were
    necessary ...)
    
All in all, it looks like a bumpy ride. I can provide URLs to back
up these apocalyptic visions, but you can find the same or better ones
with any search engine. The obvious question is, what are prudent measures
for orgs and individuals in the face of such events?

Peter Merel.

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