X-Message-Number: 10100 Date: Thu, 23 Jul 1998 08:41:24 -0700 From: Peter Merel <> Subject: Y2K Like most people, I've been thinking of the y2k problem as just some COBOL legacy issue that might embarrass the odd bank manager. Last weekend I started thinking about problems in firmware, and I've now realized we're looking at a series of events with catastrophic potential. The ones that strike me at the moment are * In early to mid 1999, a run on the banks. Probably beginning in Japan, depositors will decide to take the sensible precaution of setting aside food, water, gasoline and cash to cover the possibility of disruptions to vital services during 1/1/00. The newspapers will cover this, it will snowball, and, the supply of banknotes being far smaller than the supply of bits-representing-money, banks will be unable to cover it. Institutional investors will start to draw on their funds and there will be a crash of unknown severity. * Beginning with 9/9/99, a date significant to legacy systems, there will be a series of snafus, denials of service, and technical hiccups. Perhaps the worst of these will be the GPS rollover on August 22, which may severely affect navigation systems and bank interest calculations. * 1/1/00 itself will produce global disruptions in electrical generation and distribution networks, telecommunications, trains, planes and military systems. This will affect the availability of vital goods and services, including food. Other networks - water and sewage - may also be affected. The length and severity of these disruptions is unpredictable, but will likely be sufficient to produce panic, rioting, and firestorms in many major cities around the world. * Secondary effects will cause economic and infrastructure disruption throughout the year 2000. The severity of this disruption is unknown. There is a fair chance that many countries will see this as a good opportunity to go to war. Further technical disruptions on dates like 2/29/00, which really is a leap-day counter to many embedded leap-calculations, mayuse further destabilization (as if it were necessary ...) All in all, it looks like a bumpy ride. I can provide URLs to back up these apocalyptic visions, but you can find the same or better ones with any search engine. The obvious question is, what are prudent measures for orgs and individuals in the face of such events? Peter Merel. Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=10100