X-Message-Number: 10123
Subject: Y2K: I'm sorry, but you're nuts.
From: "Perry E. Metzger" <>
Date: 26 Jul 1998 15:21:56 -0400

I'm really sorry to say this, but as a computer professional actually
working in the financial field, I have to say that the hysteria being
created is completely absurd, and exists largely because a bunch of
people are making a ream of money off of it.

Now, that is my opinion based on direct personal observation. It
should not be surprising. Given YEARS of warning, organizations have
not simply been sitting down and waiting to be destroyed. The minor
Y2K problems they have had have been examined and largely fixed. IT
ISN'T HARD TO DO. Typically, you spend a couple of weekends running
your machines with the date artificially set to 2000 or 2001 and
things are quickly found.

Most people aren't idiots. Peter Merel's hysterical message makes it
sound like people are just sitting around waiting without doing
anything. Really, do you think that describes most of the companies on 
the planet?

Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility -- a reasonably tame
group -- has been systematically analysing Y2K rumors for some
time. They categorize them from "Unsubstantiated" to "Fit to
print". They have discovered something very interesting:

Not one story -- NOT ONE -- was deemed "Fit to print" by the New York
Times criterion. They've examined HUNDREDS.

See:
  http://www.cpsr.org/program/y2k/
(one link Peter Merel didn't give) if you don't believe me.

I'm not saying there will be NO Y2K failures. I'm just saying that
even the worst are at most going to disrupt a few small things for a
couple of days. Y2K problems are stunningly easy to fix -- at worst,
you have to hack a half dozen lines of code in a program. Even ten
minutes of training are overkill if your programmers have half a
brain.

Were I not fairly illiquid right now, I'd be making huge bets against
Y2K problems, simply because I'm so sure I'd make a killing off of
panicked people.

Sure, Mr. Merel, I'm sure you can find plenty of RUMORS. Many are even 
repeatedly reprinted.

What are the facts like?

Well, two weekends ago, most NYC financial center organizations did a
mass Y2K test. They set the clocks forward and tried simulating a day
of NYSE trading. Everything worked. EVERYTHING.

If the lot of you want to go on believing in this myth, go right
ahead, but I ask you to be rational here.

Consider that the problem consists entirely of defects of only a few
lines of code in most impacted computer programs, that there have been 
years of warning, and that most people and companies do NOT want to
find themselves bankrupted or worse.

I work part time on an open source operating system called NetBSD. We
successfully purged all our Y2K problems in a few days work. It was
TRIVIAL.

Also consider that there is now a vast industry devoted to creating
panic on the subject -- there are literally thousands of Y2K
consultants out there, and they can only make money by spreading rumor 
and panic. If there aren't huge problems, they can't make any money.

I've heard of this link before, btw...

> Hell no. There's no end of paranoia online - I could cut and paste worse
> stuff than what I wrote until the cows come home. For example, here's a 
> long page of banking-specific links: 

> http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/results_.cfm/Banking

I've heard of Gary North's page before. My sources say that literally
nothing on it is true. Why don't you go over to the CPSR page for a
bit of a sobering up?

Or maybe you should go right ahead and panic. Sell all your stock
and hide in a bunker. The rest of us will pick up the things you sell
cheaply. 


Perry

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