X-Message-Number: 10161
Date: Sat, 1 Aug 1998 13:35:13 -0400
From: <> (Jeffrey Soreff)
Subject: Re: y2k

Robert Ettinger wrote in CryoNet #10152 Fri, 31 Jul 1998 12:28:57 EDT:
>Jeffrey Soreff (#10143) suggests that most manufacturing in the U.S. may be
>halted for several months! Scary indeed. Yet--if I remember correctly--a day
>or two ago he said he did not think liquid nitrogen availability would be
>affected.

>Could he elaborate?  Thanks.

I don't _think_ I said that I did not think liquid nitrogen availability
would be affected.  In CryoNet #10108, Fri, 24 Jul 1998 09:55:58 -0400,
I wrote:

>For cryonics orgs: They'll need to have LN2 stockpiled to a larger extent
>than usual.  If the boil off rate from a tank with ~100 day's supply allows
>it to be held for ~100 days, and if it is possible to rent a tank for this
>period, I'd suggest doing so.  If utilities are disrupted for >>100 days,
>I think our society is so disrupted that attempting to maintain a cryonics
>organization is hopeless anyway, so there isn't much point in trying to
>planning organizationally for a longer disruption than this.

(an upper bound on what it makes sense to try to endure, on the grounds
that collateral damage from a more severe event isn't survivable for
a cryonics organization anyway)

and in CryoNet #10143, Thu, 30 Jul 1998 12:38:29 -0400 I wrote:
>or work around their y2k bugs, several months later.  This assumes
>that utilities are OK, large companies are OK internally, banks are
>OK, tranportation is OK, and that no side effects of y2k make it
>unexpectedly hard to fix bugs.

(an optimistic hypothetical used as part of an argument to establish
a lower bound on the severity of y2k effects)

Are either of the comments above what you interpreted as my saying
that I thought LN2 supply would be unaffected?

My guess is that LN2 production will probably be less disrupted than
production of an average manufactured product.  After all, the only
feedstocks are air and power, not 57 subassemblies from 38 suppliers.
That said, if y2k is severe and the power grid goes down and stays
down, we're still dead.  If y2k is very mild, and utilities stay up,
and all we have to contend with are the ripple effects from the
fix-on-failure folks, then I'd expect LN2 suppliers to be affected
only to the effect that an economic depression would affect them.
Admittedly, if LOX demand drops by an order of magnitude, this
might still shut them down.
Even if liquid air distillation uses microprocessors to control
equipment now, and even if the code fails, I think that it would
easier to control manually than something like an oil refinery.
No chemical reactions are involved, the feedstock is uniform, and
no high temperature steps are involved.

                                         Best wishes,
                                         Jeffrey Soreff

standard disclaimer: I do not speak for my employer.

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