X-Message-Number: 11206
From: "Scott Badger" <>
Subject: Re: Where are they?
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 1999 15:01:02 -0600
In Message #11195 wrote:
>First, what is the relevance to cryonics of conjectures about the "Fermi
>paradox"--"where is everybody?" Part of the relevance is that, if we
downgrade
>hopes of seeing advanced aliens, we are more likely to rely on our own
>resources, rather than wait for rescuers. Another part is that, by looking
at
>possible doomsday scenarios (that might account for the demise of techno
>civilizations) we help avoid such a fate ourselves.
I would add one more point of relevance (somewhat implicit in your
points). I suspect that cryonicists, as a group, cherish life more
than non-cryonicists. How precious is life, really? How many more
people would be attracted to cryonics if they had a greater passion
for life? How much more precious might each human life be
regarded if we fully accepted the notion that we are truly alone in the
galaxy, that we are each amazingly rare and improbable jewels of
sentience?
If asked, I'm sure people will agree with the idea that every human
life is precious, but most people don't really act in accordance with
that belief.
>George Smith and Brook Norton speculate that we have not seen advanced
aliens
>because they are so far advanced that we would not recognize them if we saw
>them, and they totally lack interest in us. While conceivable, this seems
>implausible to me.
>
>My guess is that, long before we become inhuman beyond recognition, we will
>achieve technical capabilities that will allow ANY INDIVIDUAL the power to
>send robot probes to other star systems, probes able and eager to assist
any
>intelligent (or even sentient) life they might find. Surely some among us
will
>have the curiosity and the empathy to do this.
Interestingly, last night's episode of the series, "The Outer Limits" was
precisely about this. A child discovered an alien probe in a cave. The
purpose of the probe was eventually determined to be an attempt to
communicate to and assist us. It was reasoned that the alien intelligence
anticipated that our minds/culture/etc would be so utterly dissimilar that
it would have to choose and transform a human to become a conduit or
a sort of human rosetta stone. Of course the beloved hollywood meme,
"we always do something stupid to thwart the good intentions of aliens"
was used in the end when the transformed girl was "cured" by laser
surgery and the only link to the probe was lost. But not before she had
a chance to jot down the final message from the probe,
"We offer knowledge. Learn to ask."
[snip]
>One of our CI directors, Dr. Michael Hart, was co-editor and contributor to
>the book EXTRA-TERRESTRIALS: WHERE ARE THEY? published by Pergamon in 1982.
>His calculations indicated that, based on studies of atmospheric evolution,
>the chance of life developing on a habitable planet is only around
10^ -30.
>This implies that, if the universe is finite, there are probably no other
>planets with life; or if the universe is infinite, while the number of
planets
>with life is also infinite, almost certainly all of them are extremely far
>away, with only a tiny chance of there being another one in our galaxy.
In Message #11196 Joseph J. Strout <> wrote:
>Yes -- I've been pondering Fermi's Paradox for many years, and recently
>have had some hope because of gamma ray bursts (GRBs). These are massive
>outpourings of energy concentrated into a few seconds, visible from clear
>across the universe. It's recently been calculated that such a burst, if
>it happened in a galaxy like ours, would likely kill all surface life in
>the galaxy (i.e., only life under water or rock might be protected).
It's been suggested that life on the back side of the planets might survive
as well.
>It's also been calculated that such bursts should happen every few hundred
>million years per galaxy.
>
>This affects the Fermi Paradox in two ways. First, it may be that life in
>the galaxy gets substantially reset every few hundred million years. So
>instead of counting from the formation of the galaxy, something like 10
>billion years ago, we should count from the last GRB, perhaps only hundreds
>of million years ago. In that case, there may be several (perhaps many)
>civilizations now achieving interstellar technology, which have not yet had
>time to colonize the whole galaxy (nor to reach some form so advanced they
>appear to leave our universe).
I still see this as failing to adequately address Fermi's paradox.
Let's say that it's been 400 million years since the GRB and we
humans find ourselves just now developing rudimentary space
travel. If we assume that intelligent life is a relatively common
phenomenon in our galaxy (an assumption I personally hesitate
to make), then the galaxy is now "teeming" with civilizations once
again. There would cetainly be considerable variance, however,
in terms of when civilzations arose on the millions of planets out
there. Natural selection is not nearly so formulaic. (note: it's
possible that we are the first to rise from the ashes but extremely
unlikely). Indeed, I suspect that if a slightly different sequence of
events had occurred, intelligent life might have appeared on
Earth a few million years before it actually did. Even a small
degree of variance means that a large number of civilizations
are millions of years ahead of us. That would be plenty of time
for them to spread across the galaxy. So we are back to the
paradox, "Where are they?"
For those who have still not read it, I recommend Robin Hanson's
article on this issue. "The Great Filter - Are We Almost Past It? @
http://hanson.berkeley.edu/greatfilter.html
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Best to all,
Scott Badger
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