X-Message-Number: 12163 From: "Yvan Bozzonetti" <> Subject: Re: Asteroids and Space Technology Date: Tue, 20 Jul 1999 20:10:09 +0200 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0005_01BED2EB.DE34C3A0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Re: Asteroids and Space Technology In message # 12146 Ran Simberg wrote: >On Fri, 16 Jul 1999 22:26:11 -0700, Olaf Henny wrote: > >>Thirty years ago, when I watched Neil Armstrong take that "small step" and >>heard him promise that "giant leap" for mankind I expected, that this >>"leap" would include 25 to 30 years later at least one moon base, if not >>two competing ones, or some other equally significant presence in space. >>Unfortunately I realize now, that we are not even halfway there yet. That >>makes me highly skeptical about speculation on any rapid progress in space >>technology. On the other hand computer technology has provided us with >>technical advances, which I could not even have imagined thirty years ago. > >The rapid progress in space will come when private activity starts to >dominate. It's only been a couple of years since the private funding >passed the threshold of exceeding government funding, but the trend will >continue and accelerate. > Well, much of that funding has flown in the communication satellite business. It may be interesting on some ground, but as a space "progress" we are here in the 1963 era, no more. Economy-driven space may hope to catch the Apollo spirit in some centuries at best. >>When the Soviet competition in space faded, so did the American effort. >>The problem appears to be the high market barrier in space commerce, i.e. >>the enormous costs involved before a marketable commodity can be developed. > >That is indeed the problem, though some viable business cases are starting >to be developed and see funding. See, for example http://www.spacedev.com. > I have argued elsewhere about space lesure as opposed to space tourism. I think there is a market for watching building and testing space hardwares. May be there will be such a center in France in some years... every space enterprise: Rotary, Kelly,... could exploit that today and make millions before the first orbital flight. The key is to present a long term, ambitious project with some dream beyond commercial satellite launches. There we get back to cryonics: as these projects would expand over tens of years or more, long life, ans so cryonics would be an essential part of that thinking. By the way, my new internet address is: totara at free point fr. Totara is the name of a long lived N-Z tree. Yvan Bozzonetti. ------=_NextPart_000_0005_01BED2EB.DE34C3A0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type> <META content="MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=GENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Re: Asteroids and Space Technology</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>In message # 12146 Ran Simberg wrote:</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>>On Fri, 16 Jul 1999 22:26:11 -0700, Olaf Henny wrote:</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>>>Thirty years ago, when I watched Neil Armstrong take that "small step" and<BR>>>heard him promise that "giant leap" for mankind I expected, that this<BR>>>"leap" would include 25 to 30 years later at least one moon base, if not<BR>>>two competing ones, or some other equally significant presence in space.<BR>>>Unfortunately I realize now, that we are not even halfway there yet. That<BR>>>makes me highly skeptical about speculation on any rapid progress in space<BR>>>technology. On the other hand computer technology has provided us with<BR>>>technical advances, which I could not even have imagined thirty years ago.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>>The rapid progress in space will come when private activity starts to<BR>>dominate. It's only been a couple of years since the private funding<BR>>passed the threshold of exceeding government funding, but the trend will<BR>>continue and accelerate.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Well, much of that funding has flown in the communication satellite business.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>It may be interesting on some ground, but as a space "progress" we are here</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>in the 1963 era, no more. Economy-driven space may hope to catch the</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Apollo spirit in some centuries at best.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>>>When the Soviet competition in space faded, so did the American effort.<BR>>>The problem appears to be the high market barrier in space commerce, i.e.<BR>>>the enormous costs involved before a marketable commodity can be developed. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>>That is indeed the problem, though some viable business cases are starting<BR>>to be developed and see funding. See, for example <A href="http://www.spacedev.com">http://www.spacedev.com</A>.<BR>></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have argued elsewhere about space lesure as opposed to space tourism.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I think there is a market for watching building and testing space hardwares.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>May be there will be such a center in France in some years... every space</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>enterprise: Rotary, Kelly,... could exploit that today and make millions before</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>the first orbital flight.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The key is to present a long term, ambitious project with some dream beyond</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>commercial satellite launches. There we get back to cryonics: as these</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>projects would expand over tens of years or more, long life, ans so cryonics</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>would be an essential part of that thinking.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>By the way, my new internet address is: totara at free point fr. Totara is the</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>name of a long lived N-Z tree.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Yvan Bozzonetti.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></BODY></HTML> ------=_NextPart_000_0005_01BED2EB.DE34C3A0-- Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=12163