X-Message-Number: 12643 Date: Tue, 26 Oct 1999 18:26:42 -0400 From: Saul Kent <> Subject: Optimism Vs. Realism In msg. #12635, Mike Darwin wrote as follows in response to an earlier message by John Clark: > I think where "we" differ is not on what > might be possible, because I think that almost any- > thing that acts within the broad confines of what we > CURRENTLY understand as physical law is possible. > What you are really asking me is more like: "Mike, don't > you think it is PROBABLE (to the point worth gambling > people's lives on) that such and such is so....?" > There is a longing in such interpretations as > "yours" and many others in cryonics which I find really > corrosive. It should be FEAR or ANXIETY about that which > UNKNOWN rather than relief at that which is known which > sets the agenda. I, too, believe (as Mike does) that there is too much emphasis and emotional reliance on optimistic scenarios for the survival of cryonics patients in the cryonics community, and that there should be more concern about the uncertainties of survival and what can be done to make cryonics better. I believe the role of optimism in cryonics should be primarily for the recruitment of newcomers, where emphasizing the scientific evidence that cryonics can work (within the bounds of credibility) is essential in bringing in new members. When it comes to discussions among existing mem- bers, however, who have clearly bought the idea that cryonics can work, it is far more fruitful, I believe, to assume the likeli- hood that today's cryonics may *not* work in order to discuss the reasons why this may be so, and to explore pathways to improving the odds of success. Repeated advocacy (and belief) in rosy scenarios, in which it is presumed that there is a good chance of today's cryonics patients being restored to life with their identities intact can make cryonics members feel good about their chances of survival, but such scenarios also tend to make them complacent about the need for research to improve today's cryonics methods. I realize that a forum such as CryoNet serves more than one purpose, and that it is, for some people, a means of attempting to recruit new members. I think it's quite possible, however, to focus on the realistic problems of cryonics without losing the optimism about its potential which plays a major role in attracting new members. I believe, in fact, that greater emphasis on dealing with cryonics realistically in the present is a more effective way of attracting new members than em- phasizing rosy scenarios about the future. I further believe that dealing with today's problems realistically is more likely to bring in new cryonics activists than any other approach, and that we need more such activists far more than we need more members per se. ---Saul Kent Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=12643