X-Message-Number: 12739 From: Date: Sun, 7 Nov 1999 08:15:18 EST Subject: Reasons for pessimism, and optimism too On Sunday, Nov,7 Charles Platt wrote: (Message #12728) >I conclude that there are so many imponderables and unforeseeable >problems and variables, no grounds for optimism exist. On the other hand, >the same argument could be used to conclude that no grounds for pessimism >exist. We simply do not, and cannot, know what will be possible or when. IMHO, there's more grounds for optimism in the long run. Given that even "blind" evolution created human intellect, there's good chances that this intellect will somehow create a superior form of itself. We can't really say how this will be done, but its seems very likely in the long run (centuries?). Theoretically, vitrified brains could be probably stored for that long @ ~-140C. However, in the short run I see more reasons for pessimism (realism?) in cryonics. First, contrary to what optimists think, there's probably real information loss even in ideal-case cryonic cases with current suspension protocols. And the brains are so badly damaged that the possibility of biological revival seems remote. Also, as has been pointed out by Mike Darwin recently, in a majority of cryonic cases there's sudden death or brain damage, like stroke or heart attack with subsequent autholysis and/or autopsy. Most people simply won't get a chance. Ideally, there should be "at will" clause for the cryonic suspension, when a person can make a decision to enter cryonic suspension while his brain is not yet destroyed by at least chronic disease. However, given that possibility of revival from vitrification of even the simplest organs has not yet been convincingly demonstrated, there's no chance for legalization of such procedure. It may take a relatively long time (decades?) to show reversible brain cryopreservation, and from there may take another decade(s?) to pass such legislation, if at all. I'm bluntly pessimistic on FDA and US Congress-period. More, now even the mainstream media entertains the idea of violent dissolution of US in the next 50 years (e.g. J. Daliden The American Dream-can it survive 21 Century?, 1999.) One can only guess what it will do for the cryonic patients Alex Berg Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=12739