X-Message-Number: 13359
From: 
Date: Sat, 4 Mar 2000 12:00:42 EST
Subject: tautologies, history

Very quickly:

1. Since it is possible to succeed without trying, it is not a tautology to 
say, "If you don't try, you are less likely to succeed."

2. Interpreting the sweep of history: There is an old saying that "Figures 
don't lie, but liars can figure." More gently, "Figures can be assembled in 
misleading ways." Except in trivial cases, deriving probabilities from 
recorded data requires great care.

In anticipating technologies, which have dominated, positive or negative 
surprises? I repeat that, obviously, the positive surprises have dominated by 
an overwhelming margin. We have multitides of answers now, where in earlier 
ages we didn't even have the questions!

The fact that many efforts and enterprises have failed, over the ages, is 
almost totally irrevelant and misleading. For example, one could point out 
that many people have hoped and even, in a primitive way, tried for a cure 
for senescence, but none has yet  succeeded, as far as we know. Does this 
mean the probability of future success should be estimated as close to zero? 
Of course not. The trick is to pick out the RELEVANT information, which I 
claim to have done.

Robert Ettinger
Cryonics Institute
Immortalist Society
http://www.cryonics.org

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