X-Message-Number: 14466
From: 
Date: Wed, 13 Sep 2000 16:41:07 EDT
Subject: Re:Fermi etc...

In Message #14443
 From: : I read:
 
 >Thomas Donaldson remarks that the Fermi question (Where are all the ETs?) 
 >becomes worse on the hypothesis of an infinite past and an infinite space. 
 >
 >I certainly agree that no plausible reason has been given for the apparent 
 >absence of advanced ETs on earth, given that they exist elsewhere. But I'm 
 >not sure the problem is exacerbated by a universe infinite in space and 
time.
 >
We don't know what the Universe content is, but we know about one of its
point: the Earth. There is a mathematical operation called a Fourier
transform who turn a sharp peak into a flat "curve" and a time coordinate
into a space one (and vice versa).

If we ask: what is the distance of the nearest ET civilization, we can answer
that question by taking the Fourier's transform of the distribution
density of civilizations. This transform is the time "distance" between
two civilizations on Earth.

Given that we are the first technological civilization here, we must enlarge
the idea of civilization. A civilization could be defined as a biological
group able to master its planet surface. With that definition the last
group to master the Earth was the dinosaures, wipped out 65 000 000
years ago. Given that single example, we can take it as representative of
the mean time between two civilizations. The Fourier's transform of that
duration give us the distance of the nearest present day civilisation:
Between 50 and 100 millions of light years away.

This is far outside our Galaxy with its 200 billions stars and its 100 000
Lys in diameter. It is even beyond the Virgo super cluster centered at
28 millions lys.  There could be neverthless up to one million of 
civilizations
in the observable universe today, but each one is so far away of any
other that for all practical purposes each is alone in the universe.

There may be life on Mars or Europa, on billions of planets in the Galaxy
but a civilization is quite another matter. 

Yvan Bozzonetti.

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