X-Message-Number: 14652
References: <>
Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2000 12:12:33 +0200
From: David Stodolsky <>
Subject: Overpopulation and the threat to human survival

>  >Population is predicted to rise to 12 billion and then stabilize or
>>gradually decrease. Carrying capacity of the Earth using the
>>technology of 30 years ago is 60 billion.
>
>I don't how you get this number - I would say that the optimal setup (most

In Physics Today, Sept. 1974, there was an article on space colonies. 
Carrying capacity of large (5 km long, 2 km wide cylindrical) space 
settlements is estimated by multiplying the created land available 
for food production with the then productive level of agriculture. 
There was also an article around this time in Scientific American, 
which gave the above 60 billion number, based upon then available 
agricultural land.

The Physics Today article proposed a space colonization effort for $6 
billion, that would install a mining facility on the moon and 
construct a first settlement in near Earth orbit. The habitable area 
would then double every seven years as new colonies were produced 
using robotized construction techniques in space. The main stumbling 
block with this plan is that the USA has elections every four years, 
so politicians can't expect to get reelected by promoting anything 
like this.

The bottom line is that there is nowhere near overpopulation on the 
Earth as a whole and if there was, a minor investment in space could 
eliminate it, assuming the cost of getting people into space could be 
reduced.

The important question is the nature of the threat to human survival. 
If we look at the evolution of human mating strategies, we see that 
they respond to two threats, resource shortage or parasitism. 
Depending which of these is dominant, either a short- or long-term 
mating strategy is selected. [Steven W. Gangestad & Jeffry A. Simpson 
(2000) The Evolution of Human Mating: Trade-Offs and Strategic 
Pluralism. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23(4)]. What is the threat 
today, food shortages or AIDS?

Except locally, resource shortage is not a threat. These local 
shortages are typically caused by parasitism of the ruling classes, 
who can actually gain by the declining fortunes of the masses. During 
a famine, for example, vast amounts of land can be acquired in 
exchange for a small amount of food. Shortages resulting from 
physical limitations require a different response than those 
resulting from social mismanagement. Those in power would prefer to 
explain all shortages as physical, of course, since being thrown in 
jail for corruption or war crimes is not seen as a desirable fate.

A massive propaganda campaign has convinced many that "there are too 
many people." We can not expect much support for cryonics or other 
life-extension technologies as long as this view is dominant.

dss
-- 
David S. Stodolsky, PhD    PGP: 0x35490763    

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