X-Message-Number: 15162
From: "Mark Plus" <>
Subject: Re: Cryonet #15149
Date: Fri, 22 Dec 2000 09:09:42 -0800

In Cryonet #15149, Thomas Donaldson writes,

>The piece by Mark Plus is a very interesting antidote to people going
>on about how the rate of progress has increased. I am not so sure
>that it really represents what is going on, but I'd also say that
>whatever may be the rate of progress, and how it is to be measured,
>it's far from clear that we're going much faster than before.

Actually the point I found relevant is how in an economy dominated by 
"services" -- banking, insurance, retail, restaurants, etc. -- all these 
much-praised technological marvels really don't have that much effect on 
overall productivity.  It's relatively easy to rationalize the production 
and movement of stuff, which dominated economic progress through most of the 
Industrial Revolution until the 1970's.  Human social interaction, by 
contrast, can't be made more efficient.  The social rituals involved in 
ordering a meal at a restaurant, getting fitted for a new suit, or (my 
specialty), reserving a room at a resort, haven't changed in decades.  
Retail clerks and restaurant workers now outnumber factory workers in the 
U.S., and the dominance of such human-interaction work drags down overall 
economic performance.

So I remain skeptical of predictions that Moore's Law is supposed to bring 
about an "economic singularity" by 2012 or so, especially since the dot-com 
sector is collapsing as the U.S. enters a recession.  The per capita GDP in 
the U.S. is only about $31,000 a year, which isn't much money, if you think 
about it.  After paying for subsistence and maintenance out of this national 
income stream, the money for radical life extension research has to come out 
of what is left over -- and there are plenty of claimants for that remainder 
who aren't interested in conquering death.

I suppose my conclusion is that we should become more ruthless and efficient 
at accumulating resources, since the historical economic trends don't look 
as promising as they did in the 1960's when futurists were predicting that 
we'd be living in a postindustrial "leisure society" by now, with minimum 
incomes practially guaranteed just for breathing.

Mark Plus
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