X-Message-Number: 15166
From: "John de Rivaz" <>
References: <>
Subject: Re: The slowing rate of progress
Date: Sat, 23 Dec 2000 11:47:20 -0000

> Actually the point I found relevant is how in an economy dominated by
> "services" -- banking, insurance, retail, restaurants, etc

Yes, this point about services is one I have been aware of for a long time.
This is why I still beleive that exclusive investment in technology is
worthwhile, even allowing for spikes and troughs such as we have experienced
this year. Technology is a very broad front, from basic engineering (energy
etc)  through semiconductors to biotechnology and genomics. Those infamous
dot-com companies who use the Internet for trading or as an entertainments
medium are innovative service companies. They are not in the technology
sector.

The average growth expected for technology based on physical possibilities
(Moore's Law and so on) is 25%, and by January 2000 we saw a 30% rise from
January 1999. A time to sell at it was more than 25%? Apparently, but
thereafter it rose to an amazing spike in March, and it now looks as though
the 25% due in 2000 will not be here. The level will be flat Jan 2000 to Jan
2001. Selling in Jan 2000 with the hope of paying your tax and buying back
would never have worked.

Over the two years Jan 1999 to Jan 2001, instead of having risen 56% (25%
compounded over 2 years), the rise will be "only" 30%. Bear in mind with a
conventional investment paying what would be considered traditionally to be
a maximum return of 10%, over two years this is 21%, so tech still wins out
over these two years Jan 1999 to Jan 2001. The 3% fixed interest and
whatever life policies offer is even less, of course. 3% per year gives
barely more than 6% for two years - the compounding is only observable to
the third place of decimals.

In 2001 there will be 1.5 GHz processors introduced, the merging of the two
sorts of Windows technology, the news recently posted to Cryonet about
treatments for Alzheimer's disease, and the future generations of
semiconductors from Intel. Even if there are further falls un the early part
of 2001, I fell confident that by the end of the year a broad portfolio of
technology stocks will see a gain of around 96% from January 1999.(ie over 3
years)  I am not certain, but confident. I remain more confident that at in
2009 a portfolio of technology stocks would be worth roughly ten times its
1999 valuation.

There is an undeclared war between technology development and the service
sector, and the battlefield is law and regulation. There is a risk that
President Bush (with his love of the religious right wing) will reverse
President Clinton's administration's positive attitude to stem cells. But
the British parliament has recently overwhelmingly voted in favour of stem
cell research in a vote free of "party lines". So even if the US bans it
outright, the work will still get done. It is possible that other instances
differences between the world's legislatures will work in other ways, but
somewhere the work gets done.

The service sector has a lot to complain about over history - many workers
have lost their jobs to automation, and the "rot" is spreading from "blue
collar" to "suits" (ie professionals) now. Technology can make compliance to
regulation easier and cheaper, but the service sector has responded by
increasing regulation to allow for this. The service sector relies on
individual leaders and rabble rousers, such as Ned Ludd, to respond on
behalf of "their members" or "their fellow professionals". Technology relies
on relentless geometric progression of science "scientists seeing so far
because they are standing on the shoulders of giants".

All this war will achieve is to deny a few people living on the boundary of
the "compulsory death period of history" to the "voluntary death period of
history" the advangates of the latter.

--
Sincerely, John de Rivaz
my homepage links to Longevity Report, Fractal Report, music, Inventors'
report, an autobio and various other projects:
http://www.geocities.com/longevityrpt
http://www.autopsychoice.com - should you be able to chose autopsy?

----- Original Message -----
> From: "Mark Plus" <>
> Subject: Re: Cryonet #15149
> Date: Fri, 22 Dec 2000 09:09:42 -0800
> Actually the point I found relevant is how in an economy dominated by
> "services" -- banking, insurance, retail, restaurants, etc. -- all these
> much-praised technological marvels really don't have that much effect on
> overall productivity.

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