X-Message-Number: 15889 Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 08:40:48 -0500 From: Thomas Donaldson <> Subject: where is this singularity? Hi everyone! My, the possibility of a singularity seems to attract a number of people. Yes, I am skeptical that this "singularity" will even happen. This is not because I don't believe in progress at all, but rather because a true singularity must involve growth rates infinitely faster than exponential. Infinity means INFINITY, and anyone who believes that we will take on an infinite growth rate should at least study some math. Even if we consider the notion of "singularity" in this context merely to involve progress at a rate far faster than at present, there are strong grounds for skepticism, though we have to look back in history to see them. This isn't the first time that people have wondered at the speed of progress. Europeans had begun to have such wonders in the 16th Century, if not earlier. Wow! Eyeglasses! Being nearsighted is no longer such a burden. The basic illusion here comes from looking at past history and accepting all the advances then made as virtually obvious, while when we look at the future we find it isn't obvious at all. Furthermore, the notion of a machine brighter than any human beings, AND with its own desires, aims, impulses etc puts together two advances: the means to make machines able to perform tasks we've thought required intelligence, AND the creation of a machine with its own desires, aims, and impulses. We all know of very bright people who lack much will or willpower, and get nowhere even intellectually; we also know of people who may not be bright, but achieve significant things because they worked at it steadily. Anyone who wants to make a bright machine with its own goals would do well to study not intelligence but the other features of our personality, such as desires. The ability to make a hyperintelligent computer does not imply the ability to make one that will do any more than answer our questions when we ask them, and otherwise sit silent. Not only that, but just what human purposes would be served by making such a computer? I hardly believe that this note has demolished any pretensions held by those who believe we'll meet a singularity, soon or even EVER. However the subject deserves far more discussion than it's yet received ... even by cryonicists, who have a particular interest in the future. Best wishes and long long life for all, Thomas Donaldson Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=15889