X-Message-Number: 15889
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001 08:40:48 -0500
From: Thomas Donaldson <>
Subject: where is this singularity?

Hi everyone!

My, the possibility of a singularity seems to attract a number of people.

Yes, I am skeptical that this "singularity" will even happen. This is
not because I don't believe in progress at all, but rather because
a true singularity must involve growth rates infinitely faster than
exponential. Infinity means INFINITY, and anyone who believes that we
will take on an infinite growth rate should at least study some math.
Even if we consider the notion of "singularity" in this context merely
to involve progress at a rate far faster than at present, there are
strong grounds for skepticism, though we have to look back in history
to see them. This isn't the first time that people have wondered at
the speed of progress. Europeans had begun to have such wonders in
the 16th Century, if not earlier. Wow! Eyeglasses! Being nearsighted
is no longer such a burden.

The basic illusion here comes from looking at past history and 
accepting all the advances then made as virtually obvious, while 
when we look at the future we find it isn't obvious at all.

Furthermore, the notion of a machine brighter than any human beings,
AND with its own desires, aims, impulses etc puts together two
advances: the means to make machines able to perform tasks we've
thought required intelligence, AND the creation of a machine with
its own desires, aims, and impulses. We all know of very bright 
people who lack much will or willpower, and get nowhere even 
intellectually; we also know of people who may not be bright, but
achieve significant things because they worked at it steadily.
Anyone who wants to make a bright machine with its own goals would
do well to study not intelligence but the other features of our
personality, such as desires. The ability to make a hyperintelligent
computer does not imply the ability to make one that will do any
more than answer our questions when we ask them, and otherwise
sit silent. Not only that, but just what human purposes would be
served by making such a computer?

I hardly believe that this note has demolished any pretensions 
held by those who believe we'll meet a singularity, soon or even
EVER. However the subject deserves far more discussion than it's
yet received ... even by cryonicists, who have a particular interest
in the future.

		Best wishes and long long life for all,

			Thomas Donaldson

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