X-Message-Number: 15960
From: 
Date: Wed, 28 Mar 2001 11:28:59 EST
Subject: goo limitations

Some of this has been covered recently by various people, but I thought I'd 
add a bit about the limitations of the gray goo threat and madman super AI 
etc.

First of all, there are severe logistical constraints on aggression via gray 
goo. The nanos are operating in the physical world in real time, and cannot 
explode to the sky overnight like Jack's beanstalk. 

The most aggressive weeds or diseases, in the most favorable conditions, 
require days of growth. The defensive computers on the other hand, once given 
a description or sample of the invader, can solve the defense problem in 
computer time--a few minutes probably--and then begin the physical defense. 
Or, for that matter, our bodies could already have in them protective nanos 
which scan everything continually and recognize friendlies and give the alarm 
at unknowns. Likewise for the environment. 

Offense traditionally has the advantage of surprise, or choice of time and 
place and means. Defense traditionally has the advantage of preparation and 
short lines of supply and reinforcement. But in traditional armies everything 
is real time more or less, both action and analysis, whereas with computers 
the action is real time but the analysis computer time. And there will be a 
lot more defenders than attackers, a lot more citizens than terrorists. And 
the defenders' home bases will have a lot more resources than the attackers' 
field bases. And the defenders will have anticipated likely attacks by their 
own preemptive simulations.

No guarantees, of course, but let's keep it reasonable.

Robert Ettinger
Cryonics Institute
Immortalist Society
http://www.cryonics.org

Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=15960