X-Message-Number: 18362
Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 13:15:12 -0500
From: "Raphael T. Haftka" <>
Subject: John Grigg's bet

John Grigg wrote:

>We made a bet that if nano-replicators are in homes by 2030, she will have 
>to treat me to dinner at a nice restaurant!  And if not, than I'm the one 
>footing the bill!
>
>Julie will be 57 by the year 2030, and I will ancient, too!!

Since I am 57 now, I wanted to share my experience, so that John and others 
may consider scaling down their expectations.

I became interested in Cryonics more than 40 years ago, but at the time, I 
considered it only a "backup" option. It was the dawn of the space program, 
and I was sure that in 40 years we will have spaceships moving at speeds 
close to the speed of light. I majored in aerospace engineering because my 
most realistic hope of jumping 200 years into the future (when I thought 
medical advances would increase our life span to 1000 years) was to fly a 
spaceship close to the speed of light.

My first backup was the hope that we will make contact with an alien 
advanced civilization that will allow us to realize these medical advances 
much sooner. Cryonics was something that would serve if all else failed.

So, John, advances in technology sometimes take longer than expected. 
Today, I would estimate that we need about 100 years for human travel close 
to the speed of light. On the good side, we can expect some nice surprises 
along the way. Forty years ago I could not even dream of the internet.

Rafi Haftka


Rafi Haftka

Tel:    Home (352-466-4432
         Work (352)-392-9595
         Fax: (352)-392-7303     

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