X-Message-Number: 18693
From: "D Pizer" <>
Subject: the odds are cryonics will work if ..........
Date: Sun, 3 Mar 2002 18:59:29 -0500

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Like most of you, I sometimes think about what the odds are that cryonics will 
work and what kind of things I can do to increase those odds, both for myself 
and for all cryonicists.



Lately, I have been thinking about how to figure the odds of cryonics working.  
It seems to me that there could be as high as a 99% chance that people being 
frozen by today's methods (even straight frozen) will be repaired and reanimated
in the future if:
1.    Humanity is not destroyed.
2.    If the patient remains frozen long enough.


The reason for this optimism is that if humanity exists long enough, say for 
1,000 more years or 10,000 more years, at that time we will have technology that
can infer exactly how your brain should be structured to be a complete mind,  
just from broken pieces of frozen rubble in your skull and then these future 
scientists should be able to assemble the brain back to its original condition.


A lot of us think that we will be repaired in 100 years, and I hope that 
happens, but if it takes longer that doesn't matter as long as you are kept 
safely frozen until you are reanimated.  Of course the better we can prepare 
ourselves for storage the quicker we can be reanimated.


Further, I believe that the longer you are frozen, the more society will take 
steps to protect you until they can bring you back.  For example, if we had a 
100 year old person who was frozen he/she would not be a valuable to us from a 
historic point of view as, say, a frozen person who was 500 years old, or 1,000 
years old - and so on.


If this is correct, then it is very important that you get frozen with a company
that will stay in business and keep their patients protected - almost forever 
if necessary.  This makes it important that your storage company is: run in a 
business-like manner,  by competent people, and is financially sound.


It should not make much difference to you (the frozen patient) if you were 
frozen for 100 years or 1,000 years as long as: they bring you back, and when 
they do they have biological immortality.   You will not have any feeling of 
having been frozen for a long time or a short time.  You will have the feeling 
of dying and immediately after you will have the feeling of waking up.  You will
have no feeling for the time you are laying there frozen.  It might even be 
more fun to feel you immediately woke up and 1,000 years has passed rather then 
a short 100 years.


And if we have biological immortality, and if you live for billions of years, it
won't seem much longer (relatively speaking) if you were frozen for 1,000 years
instead of 100.


If this sounds nice to you, then you the next logical thing you will probably 
start pondering is what you can do to make darn sure you make it into the 
future????


You can do a lot to help make your storage company stronger after you are frozen
by leaving them money.


You can do some things to help make them better while you are alive (first life 
cycle),  by getting involved with your storage company and learning more about 
them.  Don't just take things for granted.  Go to their meetings, get to know 
them.


On the other problem, there seems little a person can do to prevent humanity 
from destroying itself or destroying a large part of humanity.  But cryonics 
companies can relocate to the safest places on earth to increase the odds that 
they and their patients will not be harmed in limited global warfare or 
terrorism.


The other thing we need to do is form a back-up  company that takes care of the 
patients if the original storage company is forced out of business from 
something other than physical violence.  Probably the most likely thing that 
could force a cryonics storage company out of business would be a legal judgment
or bad financial management.


A back-up company that was not connected to the original companies would offer 
quite a bit of protection.


I hope some of these thoughts will help and I hope that others that have 
thoughts on what we can do to improve our chances will share those with us on 
this forum.

David Pizer

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