X-Message-Number: 18943
From: "pizer" <>
References: <>
Subject: Pizer  guesses odds differently than Platt
Date: Sat, 20 Apr 2002 16:27:41 -0500

Charles Platt posted:

> Subject: survival calculations

snip

> Unfortunately this still doesn't work for me, because I have always viewed
> cryonics as having a success probability around 1 in 10,000, which is 0.01
> percent.

I am on the other side of the scale.  I view cryonics as having a success
probability of close to 100%, if you get a conventional preparation, and if
the company you are stored with makes it into the future, say 500 years or
more.

If the human race survives and prospers for another 500 years they will have
technology, that we cannot even imagine now, for infering and restoring
cryonics patients.

Many cryonics members feel that is too long to be in suspension.  But what
difference does it make how long you are in suspension so long as it works?
If you were in suspension 10 years or 10,000 years, it will feel like a
short time from when you "go under" until when you "awake."

In my humble opinion, anyone who understands cryonics and does not try for
the benefits it can bring is in a sad position.

David Pizer

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