X-Message-Number: 18948
Date: Sun, 21 Apr 2002 20:43:43 -0700 (PDT)
From: Driven FromThePack <>
Subject: Re: CryoNet #18942 - #18944

-----------------
> 
> Message #18943
> From: "pizer" <>
> References:
> <>
> Subject: Pizer  guesses odds differently than Platt
> Date: Sat, 20 Apr 2002 16:27:41 -0500
> 
> Charles Platt posted:
> 
> > Subject: survival calculations
> 
> snip
> 
> > Unfortunately this still doesn't work for me,
> because I have always viewed
> > cryonics as having a success probability around 1
> in 10,000, which is 0.01
> > percent.
> 
> I am on the other side of the scale.  I view
> cryonics as having a success
> probability of close to 100%, if you get a
> conventional preparation, and if
> the company you are stored with makes it into the
> future, say 500 years or
> more.
> 
> If the human race survives and prospers for another
> 500 years they will have
> technology, that we cannot even imagine now, for
> infering and restoring
> cryonics patients.
> 
> Many cryonics members feel that is too long to be in
> suspension.  But what
> difference does it make how long you are in
> suspension so long as it works?
> If you were in suspension 10 years or 10,000 years,
> it will feel like a
> short time from when you "go under" until when you
> "awake."
> 
> In my humble opinion, anyone who understands
> cryonics and does not try for
> the benefits it can bring is in a sad position.
> 
> David Pizer


I used to think cryonics offered a small chance of
revival, and that cryonics was worth pursuing b/c we
had the chance to improve methods.  However, I agree
with you, Dave, in that ultimately, odds are probably
pretty good, except for social/civil factors (The
character of the USA may change due to immigration,
and that may decrease our chances).  However, as long
as our brains are not "scrambled", I would think that
the chances are OK for some form of
revival--information is information, and information
retrieval is information retrieval, etc., etc....


> Message #18944
> From: 
> Date: Sun, 21 Apr 2002 04:36:32 EDT
> Subject: Crossing Jordan?
> 

Yahoo truncated the end of your message, but I infer
that a cryopatient was being autopsied?
You have mentioned before that we cryos overestimate
our chances of a good death, and autopsy would
defintely be a bad death.  However, as a counter to
your pessimism in that area, the bulk of your
experience comes from 15-25 years ago (yes?), when the
percentage of autopsies was greater....
Regarding the percentage of hospital deaths autopsied,
here is a quote from some online source:

"Consider that in 1945 half of all deaths were
routinely autopsied: today, that number is closer to
10 percent. This morbid art --practiced by humans
since 300 B.C. and modernized by German scientists in
the mid-1800s--is itself dying. "

So, I think you are more pessimistic, perhaps, than is
warranted (feel free to correct me...). 

Also, there have not been that many cryos under
contract who have died, and been frozen or otherwise,
and a significant number of them were **suicides**.  I
think the high percent of cryos who suicided unduly
influences the numbers and your opinion....

Keep up the good work, though!


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