X-Message-Number: 18983 From: "Pat Clancy" <> Date: Sat, 27 Apr 2002 23:40:53 -0700 Subject: Re: Slipping singularity > The acceleration of technological change is overwhelmingly obvious IF you > alter your perception of time. > Yes the acceleration of technological innovation over the last N centuries is obvious - this is hardly in argument that anyone's particular predictions about future technological breakthroughs are inevitable or even likely. "AI" claims are a good illustration, since they've been so glaringly wrong for so long. There was a recent article in our local paper that was just gushing forth with the same tripe from the usual MIT researchers, about the amazing intelligent machines we'd have about 30 years from now. E.g., a robot that plays soccer. (IMHO there will never be such a robot based on digital computing, no matter how many gigahertz or how many processors it employs.) It's interesting that the movie 2001 also came out around 30 years before the date by which it so erroneously predicted we'd have HAL. People just mistakenly extrapolate their favorite techno-religion based on an exponential curve - this only works for very simple predictions, like increasing cpu speeds, it doesn't work to predict breakthroughs. Some computer science people seem to get particularly caught up in their own unreality - e.g. the "singularity" nonsense. An excellent book on this topic of progress in science is _The End of Science_ by John Horgan. Pat Clancy Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=18983