X-Message-Number: 19747
From: "George Smith" <>
References: <>
Subject: Fractional probabilities are bunk.  
Date: Sat, 10 Aug 2002 10:14:39 -0700

The probability for success in cryonics is zero or 100%.

Any fractional percentages are pure guesswork and are meaningless as well as
potentially hazardous to the survival of yourself and others.

An example.

Just for fun consider this slight modification of Steve Harris' mention of
his older "Drake equation application" from yesterday's Cryonet.


Probability of Cryonics Being Successful in the Future:

P1: Probability that WE DON'T KNOW  if your memories will survive your
cardiac arrest until
the cryonics organization can reach your side and get your brain cool.  100%

P2: Probability that WE DON'T KNOW if your memories will then survive
cryoprotectant solution
and vitrification in liquid nitrogen.  100%

P3: Probability that WE DON'T KNOW if eventually molecular repair technology
will be invented
that is capable of restoring humans, memory intact, when damaged this badly.
100%

P4: Probability that WE DON'T KNOW if society will survive development of
that technology.  100%

P5: Probability that WE DON'T KNOW if your cryonics organization will
survive that long, as
well as you with it (these can be slip into sub probabilities if you like).
100%

P6: Probability that WE DON'T KNOW if anybody in the best of futures, will
be interested,
resourceful, and nice enough to use the technology on you.  100%

P7: Probability that WE DON'T KNOW if you'll then be allowed to live a life
that would be
more acceptable to you than being dead.  100%

"Multiply them all together (we presume that the probabilities are
independent of each other, which is maybe a big assumption) and there you
are."

Yep.  There you are.  (1.0 x 1.0 x 1.0  x 1.0  x 1.0  x 1.0 x 1.0 = 1.0 =
100%)

100% uncertainty.

But one more "probability" about a future that hasn't happened which we can
"calculate":

P8: Probability of physical survival if you die NOW without cryonics.  ZERO%

Ladies and Gentlemen, please stop playing this baloney game of assigning
scientific sounding probabilities ("more than zero", etc.) to the reality of
absolute ignorance of what will possible in regard to cryonics succeeding in
the future.

This exercise in hubris and "scientism" can dissuade innocent people who are
considering cryonics for themselves and those they love through what amounts
to a completely bogus pretense regarding "probability" of success.


Life is an intelligence test.

The clock is now ticking.

You may open your cryonics application paperwork and begin your test now.

Be certain to turn your paperwork in before you leave the room of life.

Good luck.


Just my opinion,

George Smith
CI member

Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=19747