X-Message-Number: 19769 From: "Brook Norton" <> Subject: A spreadsheet for the odds of cryonics working Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2002 15:18:33 -0700 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0008_01C2414A.5C065760 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit In Cryonet msg #19754, Jeff Davis says "I would very much like to see such an approach developed to the point where it becomes the default authority on probability assessment. It doesn't have to give an answer--that's not the point--but rather would serve to systematize the handling of the question, parameterize, set boundaries, clarify, set the rules, bring order to chaos, and demote to the status of pretentious musings the current crop of guesses." About 10 years ago I put together a spreadsheet (Excel) that allows the user to input his/her opinion of various events occurring, like the required technology being developed, getting a quick suspension, bankruptcy, etc. The output is a plot of the odds of being successfully revived for each of 20 year increments for the next few hundred years. It is designed to be user friendly for inputs and reviewing the results. I would love to make it available on a web page but have never got around to it. But for now I would be happy to email the spreadsheet to anyone who wants to see the how their opinions play out. If you would like a copy, email me at Brook ------=_NextPart_000_0008_01C2414A.5C065760 Content-Type: text/html; [ AUTOMATICALLY SKIPPING HTML ENCODING! ] Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=19769