X-Message-Number: 19769
From: "Brook Norton" <>
Subject: A spreadsheet for the odds of cryonics working
Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2002 15:18:33 -0700

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In Cryonet msg #19754, Jeff Davis says
"I would very much like to see such an approach developed to the point
where it becomes the default

authority on probability assessment. It doesn't have to give an
answer--that's not the point--but rather

would serve to systematize the handling of the question, parameterize,
set boundaries, clarify, set

the rules, bring order to chaos, and demote to the status of pretentious
musings the current crop of

guesses."

 

About 10 years ago I put together a spreadsheet (Excel) that allows the
user to input his/her opinion of various events occurring, like the
required technology being developed, getting a quick suspension,
bankruptcy, etc.  The output is a plot of the odds of being successfully
revived for each of 20 year increments for the next few hundred years.
It is designed to be user friendly for inputs and reviewing the results.
I would love to make it available on a web page but have never got
around to it.  But for now I would be happy to email the spreadsheet to
anyone who wants to see the how their opinions play out.  If you would
like a copy, email me at 

Brook

 

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