X-Message-Number: 19773
Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2002 17:03:28 -0700 (PDT)
From: Michael Hartl <>
Subject: Future probabilities

Hello Thomas,

> No, the validity of ANY means for predicting future 
> probability is false.

There's a lot of confusion on CryoNet on this point. 
I'll do my best to clarify.

Future events are uncertain, and probabilities allow
us to quantify our uncertainty.  Such probabilities
are meaningful.  Was it really invalid to assign a
probability to the Lakers beating the Nets in the NBA
finals -- as every Vegas oddsmaker did?  Suppose that
the Lakers are playing your local high school
basketball team.  That's a future event; is it really
invalid to assign a probability to a Lakers win?  

With games of chance such as craps or blackjack, there
is a rigorous method to determine probabilities.  With
the potential success of cryonics, and other more
complicated future events, the methods are not as
clear.  As Robert Ettinger noted, the very notion of
*the* probability is ill-defined.  In cryonics, as in
sports, it depends on whom you ask.

Nevertheless, it is still meaningful -- and
potentially valuable -- to make estimates.  Uncertain,
subjective probabilities are not the same as
"invalid", "useless", or "meaningless" probabilities. 
Of course, if you really think such estimates are
meaningless, you are welcome to bet on your local high
school basketball team to beat the Lakers.  I'll take
that bet any day.

-Michael, who will probably not succeed in convincing
everyone that estimating future probabilities makes sense.

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