X-Message-Number: 19787
Date: Mon, 12 Aug 2002 12:45:28 -0700 (PDT)
From: Randall Burns <>
Subject: Evaluating Improving odds of Cryonics working

There are two means for evaluating odds of a given
future event that I've seen with some academic
backing:
a) the delphi method (a system of iterative voting 
   --I have a crude freeware implementation at 
   http://www.outlander.com/delphi
b) market based decision support(which is similar to
   what insurance companies do). A demo is at
   http://www.ideosphere.com

IMHO the biggest dangers facing those of us that plan
to be frozen are either some substantial societal
dislocation(i.e. nuclear winter, widespread use of
biological weapons, religious/environmentalist
reaction against cryonics) or a natural disaster(i.e.
asteroid crashing into the earth).


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