X-Message-Number: 19822 Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 09:41:04 -0400 From: Thomas Donaldson <> Subject: CryoNet #19794 - #19796 Another comment on probabilities, for Ralph Merkle: Yes, it's clear that if we try to compute probabilities using related events (ie. events dependent on one another for their occurrence) the computation will turn out wrong. Yet there is another and perhaps deeper problem. Even as an individual cryonicist, you are trying to follow a path which gives you the largest chance of success with your suspension. And you CAN affect the odds by what you do in support of the cryonics society you join. By just how much remains an open question hard to give probabilities for; but the success of cryonics is not like throwing dice, it is much more like trying to affect the outcome with a die that is KNOWN to be affected by magnetic fields, windspeed, noise, and many other factors. Not only that, but right now we're basically ALL trying to cause that die to fall in one way rather than another.... it's not as if we are in a competitive game with a loaded die. We're in a cooperative game with a loaded die. When we consider the situation with different cryonics societies, their ability to change the roll of that die is much greater than that of any of their members. It is this ability to change probabilities which makes the probability of a good outcome, either for you as an individual or for a given cryonics society, much harder to work out than computing simple probabilities. I'd say myself that it is hard enough not to bother with ... instead spend that time on thinking of ways to increase the success of cryonics. And yes, AFTER most of us have been suspended and revived, we'll be able to look back on the history and work out probabilities. Not that such probabilities will mean very much any more. Best wishes and long long life for all, Thomas Donaldson Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=19822