X-Message-Number: 19826
Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2002 08:11:13 -0400
From: Thomas Donaldson <>
Subject: CryoNet #19821 - #19824

Hi everyone!

For Bob Ettinger:

While it is true that Haftka reached an absurd conclusion, it's not at
all clear to me that he was joking. Basically he was following the
same method you suggested for working out the probability of success
of cryonics. It's just that he chose an inappropriate class of events
in which to judge that probability.

Which gets us into an obvious question for you. OK, so when an event
hasn't happened, we can try to work out its probability by putting it
in a class of events many of which HAVE happened, and work out its
probability that way. But clearly we can't use just any class of 
events, as Haftka just showed. So we need more information about
how to properly choose the class of events we're going to use, or
--- as Haftka's note has shown --- we become lost among the various
choices, some of which say yes and others of which say impossible.

		Best wishes and long long life for all,

			Thomas Donaldson

Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=19826