X-Message-Number: 20193 Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 08:42:56 -0700 Subject: Re: The non-inevitability of progress References: <> From: (Tim Freeman) >Message #20178 >From: "Mark Plus" <> > >Refer to: > >http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/space/1587265 > >Arthur C. Clarke is disappointed that progress in manned space travel has >stagnated. Just goes to show that "Progress" isn't some kind of cosmic >force, but rather is a socially constructed process that requires >considerable initiative & investment to sustain. So don't be disappointed if >we don't experience a technological "Singularity" in 30 years or so. ... I agree that having a Singularity any time soon is not inevitable. However, the analogy with space exploration doesn't seem valid to me. The activities I know of that can be done in space that are economically viable now and in the next few decades are: tourism, communications satellites, and (if you accept that basic science is somehow funded) telescopes and other automated space exploration. Good progress is being made on all of those. Progress isn't being made on the things that sound nice but don't yield a profit, such as colonizing the Moon and planets. Colonizing the top of Mount Everest would be cheaper and safer, and therefore more profitable. Progress toward a Singularity, on the other hand, could easily provide profit at every step. Better computers, incrementally improved AI, and changes to the (infuriating) limitations that define humanity can all lead to a wide variety of profitable enterprises. >A global depression combined with the spread of social chaos around >the world could postpone a lot of technologically doable projects >indefinitely. I agree. -- Tim Freeman GPG public key fingerprint ECDF 46F8 3B80 BB9E 575D 7180 76DF FE00 34B1 5C78 Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=20193