X-Message-Number: 21273
From: "Mark Plus" <>
Subject: Postponed Singularity? (from FUTURIST UPDATE March 2003 )
Date: Tue, 25 Feb 2003 13:58:39 -0800

[I pasted this directly from my monthly e-mail from the World Future Society 
-- MP.]

***************************************************
FUTURIST UPDATE
News & Views from the World Future Society
March 2003
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[snip]

A FORECASTER LOOKS BACK AT THE FUTURE

It is a brave futurist indeed who willingly assesses the accuracy of
his previous forecasts, but such tests are vital if the tools of
forecasting are to be honed.

In his 1992 book PREDICTIONS, strategic analyst Theodore Modis noted
that the rise and fall of many things--from a new computer model's
sales to an artist's creative output--follows the same S-shaped curve
found in natural life cycles. In that book, he examined whether death
rates in the United States would continue falling, among other issues.

How did the S-curve model do as a prediction tool? Pretty well, Modis
argues in his new book, PREDICTIONS: 10 YEARS LATER. In 1992, he
predicted that the U.S. death rate would no longer decline by the late
1990s, and indeed it has practically stopped, settling at a
"well-tolerated equilibrium" of about 9 deaths per 1,000 population.

The 335-page book is available on CD-ROM for $15 plus shipping or as an
e-mailed PDF file for $12. Order PREDICTIONS: 10 YEARS LATER from the
author: http://www.growth-dynamics.com

In the May-June 2003 issue of THE FUTURIST, Modis applies his technique
to an analysis of accelerating change and complexity, which many
futurists believe will result in a technological Singularity. Modis
argues that change may be slowing down, deferring the Singularity for
the foreseeable future.

The May-June issue mails to subscribers after April 7. Join the World
Future Society or renew your membership now to ensure that you receive
your copy: https://www.wfs.org/membord2.htm






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