X-Message-Number: 21481 Date: Thu, 27 Mar 2003 02:41:12 -0500 (EST) From: Charles Platt <> Subject: SARS update I have been following the SARS numbers on the World Health Organization web site and have been noting the increase worldwide, and in Hong Kong, and in the United States. W.H.O. posts the numbers daily except Sundays. The US numbers are questionable because, so far as I can determine, the criteria for a suspected case are looser here. The world numbers jumped by almost 800 today because China finally admitted its prior case load; since China's cases were not included previously I have not included them in my tabulation of daily increases. Since W.H.O. started logging cases on March 17, the number of additional cases per day has remained relatively stable. In other words the total number of cases has grown more-or-less linearly, not in the exponential way that would indicate that the virus has escaped unchecked into the community. On March 19,20,21 the number of new cases per day worldwide averaged 44; in Hong Kong, 27. On March 23,24,25 the number of new cases per day worldwide averaged 34, in Hong Kong 22. Thus during that short period of about a week, the rate of increase actually diminished. Today the increase in Hong Kong and worldwide was up again, but data for a single day are not meaningful when the numbers are so small and we have no idea how cases are being assessed or reported. Theories about the transmission and the mechanism of the virus (if it is a virus) are contradictory and confusing, with W.H.O. actually postulating that two viruses must both be active concurrently to create the severest symptoms--a theory which C.D.C. in Atlanta does not embrace. Clearly no one really knows anything for sure except that Ribavirin probably mitigates the symptoms, face masks are helpful if they fit properly, and the N100 is the mask of choice. The SARS story attracted extra media attention today, for reasons that are unclear. Personally I find the case numbers relatively reassuring so far, but I wonder what will happen when the panic level in Hong Kong increases to the point where many people will flee to "safe havens" (probably including the USA), thus bringing the virus with them. A friend suggests that instead of checking people for knives and nail files at airport security, we should be checking their body temperature (which can be done easily and almost instantly via the ear drum). Another friend remarked to me that it might be best to get infected as soon as possible, while cases are still relatively rare in the USA and hospitals have not yet been overwhelmed. That's a cheerful thought. Another friend (a longtime cryonicist) had made previous plans to visit Hong Kong and seems to be proceeding with the plans regardless. Yet another friend is prepared for six months of total isolation if necessary. Different personality types; different responses. This suggests that a "rational" response is not possible at this time. Alcor has ordered a moderate stock of N100 face masks as previously noted. --CP Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=21481