X-Message-Number: 21493
From: 
Date: Fri, 28 Mar 2003 18:00:20 EST
Subject: Is SARS an unlikely illness?

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In the natural world, nearly everything come from the most probable 
possibility spectrum. Stories in novels are always built on very unlikely 
outcomes. There are some specific domains where unlikely events dominate, for 
example in the nuclear or space industries. The explanation is simple: these 
complex systems are studied so that every probable faillure mode is 
identified and a solution is found. So, only very unlikely events can get 
them down. Unfortunately, there are very many unlikely possibilities and 
their combined probability is not negligible, that is why we have a 
Challenger or Columbia catastrophe.

It seems the medical domain enter that same nonlinearity domain. SARS may be 
the combination of two viruses. To get such a cooperative infection in the 
first place was very unlikely, so that particular illness would not surface 
in a most probable world. On the other hand, if medicine can reduce nearly 
all probable possibilities it is a sure way to open the door to some unlikely 
possibility.

If it is that, we may enter a rough time domain with new processes and 
infection modes.

Yvan Bozzonetti.

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