X-Message-Number: 21795
From: "Mark Plus" <>
Subject: The post-fossil fuels dark age may be in sight.
Date: Sat, 24 May 2003 08:54:36 -0700



http://www.sunspot.net/business/bal-bz.gas24may24,0,1703855.story?coll=bal-business-headlines

Natural gas supply is down 'serious' 35%
Shortfall: Alan Greenspan has warned that the nation's shortfall in natural 
gas poses "a very serious problem."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Associated Press
Originally published May 24, 2003



NEW YORK - Although natural gas is primarily a winter fuel, the industry is 
getting an unusually high level of attention as summer rolls around because 
supplies are tight and prices are soaring.
This is traditionally the period when demand tapers off and the industry is 
able to replenish inventories with cheap fuel. But this year, industry and 
government officials are worrying that supplies might still be inadequate by 
the time the next home-heating season begins.

At the very least, the fuel being injected into underground storage 
facilities these days is unseasonably expensive, a cost utilities are likely 
to pass along to homeowners, industry officials said.

An Energy Department report released this week said the nation had 990 
billion cubic feet of natural gas in underground storage facilities as of 
May 16. That is 35 percent below the five-year range and the fundamental 
reason for concern.

As with most issues confronting the energy business, this one intersects 
with environmental policy. For years, natural gas executives have complained 
that their ability to meet the nation's demand is impaired by regulatory red 
tape and a lack of access to federal lands, especially in the Rockies. Under 
the circumstances, industry officials believe that argument will now carry 
more weight in Congress.

The rumblings about the root causes of the current shortfall - dwindling 
domestic production coupled with a cold winter in natural-gas consuming 
regions of the country - reached a wider audience this week when Federal 
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan raised them before Congress.

Greenspan described the difficulty the natural gas industry is having as a 
"very serious problem" that could have negative consequences for the rest of 
the U.S. economy, particularly the manufacturing sector, which relies on 
natural gas to generate power.

"Working gas in storage is presently at extremely low levels," Greenspan 
testified, "and the normal seasonal rebuilding of these inventories seems to 
be behind the schedule. ..."

The industry has pursued an intentionally cautious approach ever since the 
summer of 2001, when record-high prices prompted a flurry of drilling that 
resulted in a supply glut as the economy sputtered. As prices plummeted 
below $3 per 1,000 cubic feet, drilling activity dried up and chastened 
executives vowed to be more circumspect.

Sure enough, the surplus disappeared and supplies tightened. Other factors 
contributing to the rising price of natural gas have been increased exports 
to Mexico and a decline in Canadian production - the first time that has 
happened in nearly two decades.

Futures prices are now hovering above $6 per 1,000 cubic feet and natural 
gas drilling activity is on the rise again, but it takes from six to nine 
months for such activity to show up in storage levels.

There is plenty of time to reach the November inventory target of 3 trillion 
cubic feet, said William Trapman, a natural gas analyst at the Energy 
Information Administration, the Energy Department's statistical arm.

"The big question is, will it be a hot summer?" Trapman added. "If it is, 
air conditioners will run more heavily, increasing demand for electricity."

Moreover, outages and maintenance-related shutdowns at nuclear plants this 
spring have led some analysts to conclude that extra demand will be placed 
on gas-fired power plants this summer.

"The hopes of refilling storage to comfortable levels while meeting 
gas-fired generation demand this summer don't look promising," UBS Warburg's 
Ronald Barone said in a report this week.

A mild summer would help avert any shortage.

So, too, would a decline in the price of oil, now more than $29 per barrel, 
giving manufacturers with fuel-switching capabilities an economic incentive 
to use crude-derived fuels instead of natural gas.

"All indications are that this winter natural gas will certainly be more 
expensive than last winter," said Rhone Resch, vice president of energy 
markets at the Natural Gas Supply Association in Washington.

Resch said the shortfall gives the industry fresh ammunition to press its 
political agenda on Capitol Hill, including its desire for access to federal 
lands currently off-limits.



Copyright   2003, The Baltimore Sun

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