X-Message-Number: 2243
From: 
Subject: CRYONICS Cold Room Planning
Date: Thu, 13 May 93 01:31:46 PDT

To: Cryonet
From: Carlos Mondragon
Re: Coldroom Economies

Michael Riskin:

>     Carlos is supporting the economies inherent in large coldroom
>storage. Carlos...yes, the ultimate economies are great indeed,  but they
>are dependent on two unknowns: One, what wil it actually end up costing 
>as compared to the initial estimate of $150,000, 

The extent of economy acheived will depend on the ultimate design and 

detailed engineering study has been completed and a small scale prototype 
has been tested (this will also tell us something about the initial 
capital needed).  Materials testing might be an intermediate step.  (Yes, 
I've read the argument that a small size model would be expensive and not 
representative.  Nevertheless, given the dollars involved, I think its 
worth doing.)  No one, so far, has suggested that there won't be *any* 
ecomony.

There should be no assumtion however, that storage economy will reduce the 
cost of funding a cryonic suspension.  Even with bigfoot storage at -196, 
economies of scale would eventually bring down the amount of capital 
needed for perpetual maintenance.  But the cost of transport and perfusion 
will, in my esitmation, rise faster (in absolute dollars) than storage 
economies.  We will be using more and more sophisticated technology for 
perfusion and costs of medical procedures continue to rise (with greater 
bureaucratic meddling it will get even worse).  So don't count on cutting 
back on what you spend for life insurance.

>and two, what will the
>real patient population growth be compared to the various estimates being
>tossed about?

This is a much safer projection to make.  Alcor's growth has been fairly 
consistent.  See Derek's article in the April issue of Cryonics.  Patient 
population growth is closely related.  On average, we get 2 new patients 
per year per 100 suspension members.  That's twice the general mortality 
rate.  And it so happens that of our last 21 patients, 13 signed up when 
they were already terminally ill, or they were last minute cases.

So, if we continue to grow as we have for the past few years, by the end 
of 1995 we should have about 700 members and 54 patients.  Of course, 
growth could accelerate as it did over the past five years or it could 
decelerate.  That's a whole different subject. 
  
Regards,
CM

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