X-Message-Number: 22692
Date: Fri, 17 Oct 2003 11:40:21 -0400
From: Jeffrey Soreff <>
Subject: Re: #22684

Randall Burns writes:
>These factors combine to make me question the long
>term political stability of the United States-they
>strike me as the type of thing that could lead
>eventually to another incident like the Civil War. We
>have never yet seen a Civil War fought in a country
>with a high tech infrastructure and nuclear weapons.

>A while back, I wrote a claim, USgn that is hosted on
>www.ideosphere.com

>That claim was an attempt to project the chance of
>major destabilization in the US by 2025.
>(Hyperinflation at the level no government has
>survived, civil war, breakup)
>At present it trades at 20-25%

>If we assume these are realistic odds, then the chance
>of the US maintainnig its present form in 66 years, is
>only 42% or so.

That is a fascinating point.
One ironic possibility:
A lot has been written about the possibility of unstable arms races
driven by advances in molecular nanotechnology.  Wouldn't it be odd
if _inter_national nanotech wars are avoided, but the US successfully
implements general purpose molecular nanotechnology, and starts large
scale use in its military - just in time for a civil war?

                         Best wishes,
                         -Jeffrey Soreff

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