X-Message-Number: 23306 Date: Sat, 24 Jan 2004 09:49:05 -0500 (EST) From: Charles Platt <> Subject: perception of risk References: <> Robert Ettinger writes: "Almost anyone will exert himself to dodge a taxi or a tiger, but if the danger is not clear and present, then, for most people most of the time, it just isn't a major concern." This of course is true, but is less true than it used to be. In postwar USA, protecting human life from longterm risk has become an increasing concern. Seat belts, childproof bottle caps, disclosure of packaged food ingredients, crash barriers on divided highways, workplace safety standards, the placement of defibrillation equipment, and numerous other regulatory precautions (created to satisfy public demand) have reduced our longterm risk of death. Almost all accident rates have declined. Also we have seen radical changes in risk-averse or mortality-averse behavior among everyday people. For example, consumption of hard liquor has diminished. Consumption of bottled water and fatfree milk has increased. (I am not speaking anecdotally; I have numbers from Statistical Abstract of the United States.) Overall life expectancy has steadily increased as a result of precautions against accidental death, public health programs, and many other factors. I would argue that in prewar USA, cryonics would have been virtually unsalable. Today it is still attracting a tiny percentage of the population, but the number has increased even though the procedure is totally unproven, requires a radical change in our assumptions about life and death, costs a lot of money, and has been traditionally implemented by amateurs. The problem is not that people are risk-averse. The problem is that there is no proof-of-practice. Cryonics organisations are in the position of trying to sell air-travel tickets BEFORE the Wright Brothers ever got off the ground, and Mr. Ettinger is like Leonard Da Vinci trying to interest investors in a sketch of a flying machine and complaining that most people just don't see the advantage in air travel. Instead of blaming the public at large for being too dumb to sign up, it might be more productive to respect the judgment of potential customers and ask ourselves what can be done to make cryonics more acceptable to them. Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=23306