X-Message-Number: 24089
Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 13:18:36 -0700 (PDT)
From: Jeff Davis <>
Subject: SUCCESS IS (still) A NEAR CERTAINTY

In Message #24083, Thoughts on Probability,
 laments:

"The data I have seen ... is fairly depressing with
regard to the potential of reanimation one day."  

And asks after something that might "discuss the
chances in a more positive light." 

Glad to help out Mike.

Here's my 'take' on the odds:

Based solely on technical feasibility, 
SUCCESS IS A NEAR CERTAINTY.

That is, if humanity or its intelligent decendants
don't dissappear due to misadventure or ennui, then
restoration from suspension looks like nearly a sure
thing.
 
For the details as to how I reached this 'assessment',
check out my 28 Aug 1998 post at:

http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/dsp.cgi?msg=10333

          ------------------------

Regarding the habitual bleat of pessimism:

In Message #19720,  wrote:

"Just pointing out (like you did) that most of us are 
simply playing the odds ($50k for a 1 in a million 
shot at extending our lifespan vs. a ZERO % chance) 
goes a long way to showing we aren't faith based, at  
the most, we can be accused of betting on long shots, 
however the payout is MUCH bigger than the Preakness 
longshot winner."
 
When I read this, I once again heaved that big,
burdensome sigh of disappointment.  The recalcitrant
and pernicious "long shot" meme again. The more's the
pity since we have the means--analytical
deconstruction followed by memeabrasion--to beat back
this nettlesome little abscess of an idea.

People go around believing, and exasperatingly 
repeating the 'long shot' nonsense, people who should 
know better, who call themselves 'thoughtful' 
and 'rationalist' and--worst of all--***SUPPORTERS*** 
(!!!???) of cryonics.  With friends like these...

They repeat it for no other reason than that 
prejudiced and equally ill-informed and uncritical 
folks before them have engraved memetic ruts of 
wrongheadedness into the language centers of their--
and larger society's--brain.  So that, sadly, whenever

they think or speak of matters cryonic, the wheels of 
thought and speech drop, all innocent and habitual, 
into that timeworn rut, with nary a moments pause to 
reflect on what is factual and what is garbage-in-
garbage-out.  Cryofolk owe it to themselves to rise 
above monkey-hear-monkey-speak.  The MHMS method of
probability assessment is--pardon my French--pure
crap.

     -------------------------------------- 
Best, Jeff Davis

"Our father was not a religious man. The faith that
many people place in God, we place in science and
other human endeavors."
                 John Henry and Claudia Williams







	
		
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