X-Message-Number: 24212
Date: Tue, 8 Jun 2004 07:16:43 -0700 (PDT)
From: Randall Burns <>
Subject: Re: CryoNet #24203 - #24208

Re: Get to North America while you can
I would be careful about spreading panic here-and
especially careful about coupling that with cryonics.

a) I do think there is a chance that you may be right 
   here

b) I think we need to get a better estimate of the
odds
   here before encouraging folks to make major life
   decisions(I have suggested before we do some claims
   on www.ideosphere.com to get some consensus odds 
   from that forum).

Peak oil and North America is the place to be don't 
necessarily follow. North America may be among the
more
oil dependent places on the planet. I can imagine a
situation in which changes in oil trading routes tanks
the US economy while Russia rides high on its abundant
hydro and oil--and China and India replace the US/EU
as the major customers of Middle Eastern Oil. I can
even imagine that the EU may be able to adjust better
here-the EU has decent rail infrastructure and their
leaders seem to have been considering the geopolitical
realities of the situation more clearly than the oil
corporations occupying the white house.

I tend to think there will be some warning here beyond
sporadic media stories before stuff like air
transportation is cut off(i.e. we'll see oil jump
clearly beyond the oil record prices when adjusted for
inflation).

What we need to encourage is careful analysis of
risks-not simply roll of the dice that we can't back
up very, very carefully.

>Oil Prices Threaten European Air Traffic Growth
>http://news.airwise.com/stories/2004/06/1086259949.html
>
>Is the world's oil running out fast?
>http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3777413.stm
> 
>Meanwhile, the claims that we still have "plenty of 
>oil" are invalidated by thermodynamics.


	
		
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