X-Message-Number: 24592 From: "Mark Plus" <> Subject: Peak Oil threatens civiilian aviation Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 08:24:25 -0700 Our civilization has already relinquished commercial supersonic travel (the Concorde) because of fuel costs. Peaking oil supplies now threaten commercial subsonic jet travel, including the ability of overseas cryonicists to get the North America. Manage your risk, not your terror -- though I suspect I'll be seeing more terror-management confabulations about how economics will conquer thermodynamics and geology and somehow miraculously give us an exponentially growing supply of oil [Mark Plus]: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0905oilfuture05.html Global oil crisis lurking Demand growing, supply leveling off Marilyn Geewax Cox News Service Sept. 5, 2004 12:00 AM WASHINGTON - With oil prices receding from this summer's records, motorists and airline stockholders are hoping for relief from high gasoline and jet fuel bills. But many energy experts predict that not only won't the price decline last long, but Americans soon will have to say goodbye forever to plentiful, cheap oil. With demand for fuel growing rapidly in China, India and other developing nations, "the world is entering a period of runaway growth in demand for fossil fuels," said Matthew Simmons, founder of Simmons & Co. International Ltd. At the same time, growth in the supply of the most desired fossil fuel - oil - is slowing. No major oil fields have been discovered in nearly three decades. And despite record revenues, oil companies are barely increasing their production capacity. The result in coming years: fuel prices far higher than anything seen so far. For oil companies, "it's the end of growth - that's what peaking is all about," said Simmons, whose Houston-based independent investment bank specializes in the oil industry. "A production decline doesn't mean you're out of oil, but it means that by 2010, maybe you are producing 75 million barrels a day," he said, "and the world demand is maybe 90 to 100 million. It's that gap that creates chaos." For many airlines, chaos already has arrived. The Air Transport Association, an industry trade group, estimates that for U.S. airlines to simply break even, they need oil prices to stay below $31 a barrel. During the decade between 1992 and 2001, the median price was $20, allowing airlines to flourish. On Aug. 19, the market peaked at a nominal record of nearly $49 per barrel. Though prices have receded, they remain high enough to guarantee losses for airlines. If airlines raise fares to cover the steeper costs, customers stay home. But if they don't charge higher fares, they lose money on each flight. "This is just untenable for us," said John Heimlich, the ATA's chief economist. The airlines may be the canaries in the mine shaft, warning of the coming danger for the entire economy. _________________________________________________________________ FREE pop-up blocking with the new MSN Toolbar get it now! http://toolbar.msn.click-url.com/go/onm00200415ave/direct/01/ Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=24592