X-Message-Number: 24645
Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 18:08:45 -0400
From: "Raphael T. Haftka" <>
Subject: Oil crisis
References: <>

Oil is cheap!


Having lived in the United States since 1968, I find it amusing that people get 
excited about the price of gasoline. In 1968 I drove a 1958 Chevy Impala that 
got about 10 miles to the gallon. Gasoline was 30 cents to the gallon, so the 
10,000 miles that I put on the car cost $300/year, which was about 10% of my 
income. The other expenses on the car, including depreciation were about the 
same, so gasoline account for 50% of my cost of keeping a car.


Now I am driving a 2003 Toyota Avalon, which gives me about 16 miles to the 
gallon. At $1.90/gallon, this is about 12 cents per mile, which is less than a 
quarter of the cost of driving (including depreciation it is about 55 
cents/mile). If the cost of gasoline went to $19/gallon, I could easily switch 
to a car like the Prius that would give me 50 miles to the gallon. This will 
raise the cost of gas to 38 cents per mile, which would still be less than half 
of the total cost of driving, even if the other expenses stayed the same.


Similarly for airfares. The cost of flying has not kept with inflation, and 
gasoline at the present is also only about 20% of the cost of flying. So even a 
10-times increase is not likely to more than double fares, and as an aerospace 
engineer, I am sure we will design more fuel efficient airplanes and flight 
patterns.

Rafi Haftka

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