X-Message-Number: 25166 From: "mike99" <> Subject: SKEPTIC magazine finally publishes some pro-cryonics writings Date: Sat, 27 Nov 2004 12:19:16 -0700 The latest issue of SKEPTIC magazine (November 2004, vol. 11 no. 2) has 2 letters and 1 article by pro-cryonics writers. This is a refreshing change from their previous habit of publishing almost exclusively only anti-cryonics items that, in many cases, include glaring errors of fact and logic. In the current issue, a section titled "Cryonics Forum" appears (pp. 27-31). It begins with letters from Brian Wowk, PhD of 21st Century Medicine, and Steven Harris, MD, that focus on the exciting developments in vitrification research. These letters, which occupy the first page of the section, are followed by a 4-page article by Prof. Gregory Benford (physicist and science fiction author) titled "A Frozen Future? Cryonics as a Gamble." Dr. Benford focuses on estimating the odds that cryonics will succeed (both technically and, for resuscitation, socially). In the course of doing so, he includes mention of many facts about the development of cryonics (such at the signal contribution of Robert Ettinger's book THE PROSPECT OF IMMORTALITY) that will be helpful to novices who, up until now, may only have known the sketchy facts from the earlier, anti-cryonics articles that appeared in SKEPTIC. Benford structures his odds estimate as the product of his estimated probabilities for several independent variables. Admitting that this is highly subjective and extremely unlikely to be very accurate, Benford still recommends this exercise as a way to get a feel for how likely each component of cryonics might be, and how likely total success might be (i.e., successful revival from cryonic suspension). The component probabilities are categorized by Benford as Metaphysical (Does the brain really contain the mind?), Social (Will your cryo-preserved brain make it to the era when revival becomes possible, or will some terminal damage be inflicted upon it by mobs, bureaucrats or accidents before then?), and Technological (Will cryonics work at all?). Benford sees little likelihood that the mind is not the brain, so he rates the Metaphysical odds very favorably as 0.9 (90%). However, he deems the Social odds to be distinctly less favorable, at a mere 0.36. On the Technological odds, Benford is concerned that the very nanotechnology that seems most promising for revival from cyro-preservation is also capable of wreaking vast destruction, so he estimates the Technological odds at a mere 0.5. Multiplying these component odds, Benford arrives at a final estimate of success at a surprisingly small 0.7 (7%). Does this mean Dr. Benford believes that cryonics is not worthwhile? Not at all. He goes on to point out that there are other ways to view these odds, such a considering them as a return on investment. A 7% return is actually quite good. Then Benford reconsiders some of his earlier assumptions and, choosing to be more optimistic than when he started his exercise, comes to a final estimate of success of about 30%. Benford ends his article with the following words: "...for those willing to gamble on a probabilistic scenario whose success could result in significant life extension, I think it is a bet worth taking. There may also be one last benefit. Unless you believe the probability is exactly zero, with cryonics you can die with a sense of hope." Regards, Michael LaTorra "For any man to abdicate an interest in science is to walk with open eyes towards slavery." -- Jacob Bronowski "Experiences only look special from the inside of the system." -- Eugen Leitl Member: Extropy Institute: www.extropy.org World Transhumanist Association: www.transhumanism.org Alcor Life Extension Foundation: www.alcor.org Society for Technical Communication: www.stc.org Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=25166