X-Message-Number: 26714 From: "Brent Fox" <> Subject: Membership Numbers And What Really Counts Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 09:01:00 -0400 When I first read "Tru_Numberman" request for CI Suspension Membership numbers (CryoNet Message No. 26676), for some reason I immediately suspected that this person wanted to start another Alcor v. CI (or vise versa) debate. For whatever motive "Tru_Numberman" has for wanting the numbers, she/he did have a valid question. However, the fully signed(Suspension Member) numbers had previously been published by CI's President, Ben Best in past issues of "The Immortalist" magazine, as well as to CI members on its Internet group. (I don't have my issues in front of me, but if someone wants the issue numbers, I will dig them up). There is no "cover-up" of membership numbers of CI, either Organization Members, or Suspension Members. I was a little disappointed in seeing cannon shots fired by Robert Ettinger (#26690) and Joe Waynick (#26700), with each doing a little chest thumping of how their respective cryonics organization compares with the other. In relation to the question raised by "Tru_Numberman", Robert Ettinger and Joe Waynick stated the following concerning membership numbers: Robert Ettinger's reply (CryoNet Message No. 26690): "As to the alleged membership numbers, I don't have those handy, but they are less important than some other considerations. Certainly one of the most important numbers is the patient population, and Cryonics Institute has a slight lead there, according to available figures, 68 to 67." In CryoNet message number 26700, Alcor's president Joe Waynick stated, "Clearly, the number of fully funded members is an indicator of the strength and future viability of your organization. The better-financed organization has a strong advantage over the less financially stable organization. In addition to receiving the best cryopreservation possible with todays technology, Alcor members have the assurance that they are backed by the largest and most financially stable cryonics firm in existence." While at first glance, what each say appears to be equally true, but it is wrong. What is important to the foundation of the stability of a cryonics organization is the ongoing ratio of Suspension Members to Suspension Patients. It's very simple, in that the growth of Patient Population should not ever exceed the Membership growth, otherwise the organization will become stagnate and eventually extinct. Several months ago, I started a project with the intention of doing a statistical forecast of overall growth in cryonics using both membership numbers from CI and Alcor. CI President, Ben Best, provided me with Organization Membership numbers by year. I also requested Suspension Membership numbers by year, but was told that the data was not available, due to the sign up date (becoming Suspension Member) was not kept track of. I also asked someone at Alcor for Suspension Membership numbers by year, to fill the gaps in the data that I was not able to obtain from the various Alcor publications. I did not receive the data. Part One of the project looks at any correlation with world population growth and CI Organization Membership growth. A statistical forecast was also made of CI Organization Membership and Patient Population based upon the data provided. Part Two would have looked at a comparison of Organizational Membership, Suspension Membership, and Patient Population, and would have included a statistical forecast of CI Suspension Members. The next phases would have broken down Alcor's numbers just as I had (and intended to do) with CI's numbers. Then, an overall statistical forecast would have been done. Granted, doing statistical forecasts is like trying to predict the weather. There are many factors that will influence growth, and the further one tries to project, the further the actual target in reality would likely be missed. I am not a mathematician, but the work that I have done can be mathematically reproduced to check the results. A somewhat "not quite ready" to be published look at my work can be found here: http://cryonics.home.att.net/CI/ciprojection.html I would be glad to continue with this project, should the additional data from Alcor and CI become available. Best regards to all, Brent Fox Per Ardua Ad Astra Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=26714