X-Message-Number: 26795
References: <>
From: David Stodolsky <>
Subject: Re: Predicted Cryonics Institute patients to 2044
Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 18:46:05 +0200

On 9 Aug 2005, at 23:08, Robin Helweg-Larsen wrote:

> I can imagine two factors that could radically impact the  
> progression: one would be a change in social acceptability of the  
> idea of cryonics, which, especially if it led to government funding  
> as a standard health care option (perhaps more likely in Denmark or  
> Canada than the US) would skyrocket the numbers.

If we want to see something like this coming, then the type of data I  
mentioned earlier (inquiries, memberships, requests for paperwork,  
etc.) and a well tested model showing their relationships would be  
important in increasing capacity in a timely manner.

Changes in social acceptability would best be measured by survey  
methods, supported by small experiments. However, there isn't much  
baseline data thus far, so routine data collection as part of an  
ongoing marketing effort would be extremely useful.


> The other is in the opposite direction: as medical science  
> advances, we will hit aging stasis (by 2020?), and then  
> rejuvenation (by 2025?), and the ability to avoid cryonic  
> suspension except in the case of particularly difficult illnesses  
> or traumatic accidents.
>
> Perhaps, whenever they finally occur, those two factors will cancel  
> each other out, and leave David's projections intact!

This is possible, but unlikely. The current model doesn't even take  
into account explicitly the quarter year increase in live expectation  
per year that has been occurring for almost two hundred years  
(worldwide.) Demographic factors are also important, since they  
change the age structure of the population, and maybe attitudes and  
demands. For example, the post-WWII Baby-Boom generation is now  
reaching retirement, and all indications are that they have a  
different attitude toward what they can do and what they are "owed"  
by society, as senior citizens. Mobilization of this 60's generation  
in favor of new medical procedures could have a dramatic effect on  
the growth of cryonics.


dss


David Stodolsky    Skype: davidstodolsky

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