X-Message-Number: 279
Date: 18 Feb 91 02:10:25 EST
From: Steve Bridge <>
To: KEVIN <>
Subject: Cheap Freeze Evaluation
Message-Id: <"910218071025 72320.1642 EHI22-1"@CompuServe.COM>
TO: Kevin
2-18-91
Detailed Commentary on Cheap Freeze Approach
By Steve Bridge, Midwest Coordinator
Alcor Life Extension Foundation
In October, 1990, Richard Schroeppel proposed a "home storage" option
for cryonics, which he believed would allow families to place their
relatives into cryonic suspension and to maintain them in their garages or
spare rooms at a fraction of the cost required by Alcor. The objections to
this proposal by Ralph Merkle, Brian Wowk, Thomas Donaldson, Keith Henson,
and Steve Harris were accurate as far as they went; but, oddly enough,
everyone appeared to accept his basic argument that home storage would in
fact be CHEAPER.
After looking at this approach for quite a while, and discussing price
estimates with Mike Darwin of Alcor, it seems obvious to me that Richard's
entire plan is based on several false premises of cost. Maintenance of
individual patients in private homes would be much more expensive than at
Alcor, and it seems likely that the upfront costs would be at least as
expensive, even without perfusion. I give cost estimates in the discussion
following, plus some other comments I have on Richard's proposal. I do not
wish to argue this proposal indefinitely nor to put Richard through public
embarrassment. However, ideas like this surface every few years, and better
answers are required. Other newcomers to cryonics may learn quite a bit
from studying this issue.
To begin with the essential point: In his first proposal, Richard
assumes that:
"The can will cost a couple of thousand dollars; the suspension another
thousand. We offer to buy back the can for the first three months, so
people feel they can change their minds. It's cheap enough that almost
anyone faced with a dying parent or the surprise death of a spouse or child
can make the decision to freeze instantly. They can pick up the phone, call
Cheap Freeze, and charge the suspension on MasterCard. The truck zips over
to the victim's house or hospital room and starts the cooling; we come back
in a day or so with the can, and arrange payment or credit. The victim's
body remains in the possession of the relatives, who are responsible for
topping up the LN2 every couple of months. We tell him where to buy LN2, or
we make deliveries occasionally. This costs maybe a hundred dollars a
year."
OK, Richard, let's examine this. (Figures to follow are from "The Cost
of Cryonics" by Mike Darwin, in the August, 1990 issue of CRYONICS
Magazine.) Right now, Alcor must pay $13,000 for its two-patient (whole
body) dewars and $18,000 for its four-patient dewars. A specialized one-
patient tank will not cost simply half the cost of a two-patient unit.
Certain basic costs are intrinsic in starting up production, and it seems
very likely these units could not be produced for under $8,000. Perhaps a
production schedule of 100 tanks per year would drop that cost somewhat, but
not to $2,000. Besides, it is the FIRST people to do this at home that you
are interested in. If it doesn't become fairly easy to do for the first
people, there will be no way to get the economies of scale later. No one
will be the first. Perhaps you could devise a more cheaply made tank, but
that would decrease safety and increase liquid nitrogen boil-off rates (more
on that to come).
These tanks must be STAND-UP models, around 8' tall. Lay-down models
have terrible disadvantages. Primarily, the horizontal units have to be
sealed units, with a valve for boil-off, or the nitrogen pours out on the
floor. Also, having the nitrogen in contact with some kind of unsealed lid
increases the boil-off. "So," you say, "what's the problem? Just seal it."
Unfortunately, every known sort of dewar capable of storing liquid nitrogen
develops vacuum failure within 20-25 years. (A more cheaply-made tank would
be expected to fail sooner.) These storage tanks are made like a Thermos
bottle, with a vacuum between the inner and outer stainless steel cylinders.
The vacuum is what prevents heat transfer. When the vacuum weakens or
disappears altogether, the boil-off rate approximates that of an open pail
of LN2, which is pretty useless. You would have a difficult time getting
nitrogen fast enough to keep the tank full. So the patient must be removed
from the tank and placed in another one -- within 30-40 minutes, or the
patient's temperature starts to rise, and one thing we are VERY sure of
through research is that temperature fluctuations, even where the subject
stays frozen, are extremely damaging to tissue.
Removing the end of a sealed tank requires that 1) you allow the
nitrogen to boil-off below the level of the neck-tube and 2) you use a
welding torch to cut off the end of the tank. Imagine how THAT temperature
fluctuation is going to affect the patient. In fact, Alcor is currently
working on a plan to do exactly that with the one ancient lay-down tank we
have, in order to transfer the patient to a regular standup model. The
preparations required to protect the patient are agonizing, and it will
still be dangerous.
So let us say you agree to the stand-up model. A back-up is needed. A
cryonics organization can solve this by having a spare dewar always
available for patient transfer, so the original dewar could be repaired.
Having two dewars available puts the cost up to $16,000. Sure, several
families could go together on a back-up (after several nearby families have
frozen relatives -- these things are not easy to transport great distances).
Or the cryonics organization you propose could have extras available. But
either option increases the required costs and complications.
An 8" tall tank filled with LN2 weighs around a ton. You want to keep
this in a spare-bedroom? Even the smaller weight of water beds can damage
floors in some homes. Besides, you need a way to get that patient out of
the tank. The only way Alcor has found to do this safely is to have the
patient tied to a specialized tray in the tank, and use a winch to hoist the
tray and patient out of the tank, move the tank out of the way (a three
person job, even with good casters), move the other tank in, and slide the
patient in. For this you need a ceiling space of about 20-25 feet, or a
skylight with a framework on top. How many people's garages even have an 8'
high door? How much more would putting in a skylight, winch, and frame add
to the cost of the suspension? And to be used only once every couple of
decades? (although it would also make the tank filling easier). Even
having enough space to remove the lid and fill the tank requires at least
four feet above the height of the dewar. A 12' ceiling in a garage will
require a lot of remodeling.
Bob Ettinger at Cryonics Institute in Michigan has developed semi-
vacuum units of reinforced foam; but even these are about 12 feet long and 8
feet wide. And the technology is not currently readily available like the
vacuum dewars are.
It gets even more complicated. Liquid nitrogen is dangerous stuff.
Several people a year die or are severely injured from mishandling of it.
If it is kept in a poorly ventilated room, in some weather conditions it can
displace the oxygen, causing people to asphyxiate. This is especially true
in case of a spill in such a room or vehicle. LN2 in a sealed container
will build up pressure and explode. A University of Alabama chemistry
student was blinded last year fooling around with LN2 in a capped soft drink
bottle. Are you going to have children around the garage? Of course,
spilled LN2 can kill or injure though direct freezing injury. And it is
possible to just fall into the tank while examining it or filling it. If
many untrained people were handling liquid nitrogen, a number of them will
get killed or maimed, creating monstrous public relations and liability
problems for your group.
This is why it is illegal to deliver LN2 and many other sealed gases to
private homes in California. I don't know about other states, but a few
colorful accidents like this would give regulators good reason to shut off
delivery there, too. The individuals would probably have to buy their own
delivery tank (another few thousand dollars) and pick up their own LN2,
which is probably illegal in many states, too.
Even if a way could be found to convince the government to allow this,
and even if a nitrogen supplier could be persuaded to deliver such small
amounts to individuals, the cost of LN2 alone would be much more than the
$100.00 per year that Richard suggests. Even Alcor's LN2 cost for a whole
body patient in a two-person unit right now is $821 per year. Alcor buys
enough LN2 that they only have to pay 29 cents a liter. An individual would
have to pay at least $1.50 per liter -- FIVE TIMES GREATER. That gives us a
nitrogen cost of $4,100 per year, and even that assumes the best possible
dewars. That does not include the delivery charges, the cost of the filling
apparatus itself, the alarms on the tanks (which are an ongoing expense,
since you need a telephone service to respond to the alarm), or liability
insurance to protect against accidents to visitors (if an insurance company
could even be found which WOULD write such insurance. More likely they
would refuse you ANY fire or liability insurance on your home at all).
Let's also not forget that the initial amount of liquid nitrogen
necessary to lower a single whole body down to -320 F and to fill the tank
the first time is at least 400 liters (Alcor requires 850 liters for
cooldown of one patient in the two patient tank, so I'm not absolutely sure
how the numbers translate) = $600.00.
Now let's move to the dry ice costs. You need a large insulated box
for the patient. Alcor places the patient in silicone fluid and adds the
dry ice to that. This is very efficient and allows for cooldown to -110 C
in less than one day. Let's assume that your home freezers won't use the
silicone, which is fairly expensive, so they might get away with a modified
casket liner. (Your suggestion for a wooden box filled with alcohol would
be immediately nixed by the local fire department. Talk about an expensive
cremation, not to mention burning down the house! That hazard is why Alcor
hasn't used an alcohol bath for many years.) Say $500.00 cost for the box
construction, an expense which could be shared among many users. Let's call
it a $100.00 charge for rental and delivery. Don't forget, your company
will need several of these.
Without silicone or other heat transfer medium, the cooling will go
more slowly, probably at least three days. In practicality, many or most
patients will probably be on dry ice for more than a week, as the family
makes the other necessary arrangements and decides whether they want to
pursue this situation further. Alcor estimates costs of $147.00 for enough
dry ice for cooldown in silicone. This does not work out to $147 per day
for subsequent days, since the dry ice usage will go down after the
patient's temperature has been reduced all of the way. But let us estimate
probably $300 for dry ice for the first three days (in the less efficient
cooling system) and $25 a day after that: $400.00 for the first week.
Now, what is going to be the charge from your company for the labor and
advice of your people? It cannot be all volunteer. Someone has to be full
time to coordinate, advertise, answer phones. Oh, yes, you have phone
expenses, beeper expenses, building rental or ownership to store all of
those boxes, tanks, trays, and other equipment you will have to store to
sell people. How about postage, copying, FAX, printing, maintenance
expenses, incorporation fees, legal expenses (no, you can't do a quickie
incorporation on this kind of business. You will have unique liabilities
that several attorneys are going to scratch their heads over, even if you do
manage to avoid having a contract with the family.). How about your upfront
engineering and inventory costs? As a simple example, engineering for the
patient trays alone took 6 different prototypes, and each one currently
requires 2 full work days to make. Economies of scale only occur after
popularity, remember. I estimate several hundred thousand in start-up
costs, plus some unknown figure of over $100,000 per year in expenses.
Isn't real life fun?
You estimate that "we could start immediately and be on-line in six
months." Haven't started any businesses, have you, Richard? One couldn't
start such an organization in 6 months with the best lawyers in the world.
There are too many new problems to be worked out. If you DO try to avoid
the attorneys in the set-up, better have a few million in the bank for
PERSONAL liability claims, just in case a judge later decides that you are
not properly incorporated.
Up-front expenses for one patient:
Patient dewar $ 8,000
Backup dewar share 2,000
Building remodel 5,000
Sleeping bag, gloves,
ice, other misc.
expenses 500
Dry ice (1 week) 400
Dry ice box share 100
1st cool and fill 600
Alarms, fill app. 300
LN2 storage tank 2,000
Cryo company charge ???
Subtotal up-front $18,900 +
On-going annual charges:
Liquid nitrogen $ 4,100
Alarm charges 200
Subtotal annual $ 4,300
TOTAL FIRST YEAR $23,200 +
At this rate, it only takes *** 18 YEARS *** to spend $100,000. I have
a $100,000 insurance policy for which I pay $60.00 per month. I can stop
payments on it after 10 years and still have $100,000 in permanent
insurance. Now, who is saving money?
That covers the financial aspect; but I want to make a few other
comments, too. What Steve Harris said about the illegality of keeping human
remains at home is crucial to understand. It has taken hundreds of
thousands of dollars in legal expenses to get ALCOR the legal (and still
uncertain) right to maintain these frozen patients. This victory, should it
become complete, will not automatically be extended to just anyone with a
large garage.
Then there is the problem of long-term care. Cryonics is all about
continuity over a long period of time. Families are no longer continuous.
My four cousins, all raised near Indianapolis, are now in Chicago, Houston,
Wyoming, and Indianapolis. And this family is emotionally very CLOSE. 50%
or more of American families with children include at least one divorced
parent. Extending this to grandchildren is very speculative. It is much
more likely that a solid organization will survive than a family.
What happens when a family wants to go on vacation or has to spend time
out of town with another dying relative? It is not so easy to find
dependable neighbors and friends to check on Gramps. One New York
cryonicist had a professional cryogenics crew checking on his wife's dewar
while he was out of town. They damaged the tank, lost vacuum, and
eventually the wife thawed out.
Another consideration: who is going to pick up the patient from the
hospital or nursing home? Who is going to file the death certificate? Who
is going to remove the patient's clothes, clean him up, wrap him in the
sleeping bag (or whatever); and after the patient has gotten down to dry ice
temperature, who will put him in the tank, fill the tank, and train people
to care for the tank and patient? Usually these various tasks are done by
the mortician and the cryonics company. Everything that will still be done
by a mortician or cryonics organization will result in additional costs that
must be paid for by somebody. Everything that the family does will be a new
experience that someone will have to help them with. Could you do any of
these things without special training?
The question of handling the remains is especially troubling. A
century ago, many American families, especially in rural areas, still cared
for their own dead. They sat with the family member while he died, washed
and clothed the body, organized the wake, built the casket, and dug the
grave. For most people today, death is a sterile event. Patients die in
hospitals and nursing homes, whereupon death specialists take over. EMT's,
nurses, orderlies, morticians, and cryonics technicians do all of the
touching, cleaning, and clothing. Grandpa doesn't look too good after
cancer, pneumonia, heart disease, kidney failure, and liver failure. He
won't be much fun to handle, especially if the family member is at all
dubious that this person is still savable. How about a patient who is a
bloody, mutilated mess after death in an auto accident? Or one who is
decapitated in an accident? Think about the emotional load for the family
if the patient was murdered? (Not to mention the sensitive negotiations
that must take place with the coroner to prevent further mutilation!) What
if Grandpa died of AIDS, or septicemia, or some even more nasty communicable
disease?
Do you see why this is both a question of public health and of mental
health? I can certainly understand why relatives would be dubious about
taking on this kind of responsibility. I have met only a handful of
families even willing to HELP ALCOR with the suspensions. Read about the
Donovan family's work with Alcor to get their father suspended (reprint from
CRYONICS magazine available from Alcor). It took them 6 months of work and
arrangements to pull off that suspension, with Alcor and me working with
them all the way. They participated in every step, including the surgery in
California. But do I think they would have been willing to freeze and store
their father at home? No. And this was the most committed family I can
imagine.
You seem to assume that an organization which merely sells the
equipment and advice to the relatives would somehow be immune from the
lawsuits which would trouble "a controversial organization with ... an
identifiable lump of money." Wrong. If you sell the tank or give advice,
you could be found liable for various types of failures. And as many of my
friends have discovered, you can be sued for anything. It can cost
thousands of dollars just to have your name removed from a lawsuit that you
are not even rationally connected with.
Several people have commented on the issue of viability, and I agree
with them. Cheap plans which do not result in saving the individual are a
bigger waste of money than procedures which may later be shown to do too
much. The issue is saving the individual.
In a later reply to Brian Wowk, Richard, you miss the point when you
say that "Both cases that Brian Wowk refers to (Cryo Soc New York & Cryo Soc
California) were organizational failures, where the whole thing failed at
once." This is simply not true. The point is that both organizations
depended entirely on payments from relatives to keep patients in suspension.
After a few years, the relatives were no longer interested in making the
payments. CSNY slowly died from lack of payments and eventually lack of
interest; it was not "corrupt." Financially, the CSC situation was only
slightly different. While some fraud was possibly involved, the big problem
was apathy on the part of the relatives. NONE chose even to visit the
organization to check on the suspensions. Most slowly stopped making
payments over the years.
Finally, Richard, you suggest that Alcor or other cryonics companies
might be willing to help set up something like this or to sell or give
technology developments to such an organization. I think this is unlikely.
Most or all of these organizations will see this as a proposition which is
likely to fail. It will likely fail for many individuals, bringing
emotional stress (and lawsuits). Some suspensions will likely fail in
spectacular and grisly ways, killing or injuring family members or
endangering the public health. This will result in restrictive legislation
which may harm all of the cryonics organizations. And there is, of course,
the pride in doing the job right, which I expect from my own organization,
at least, and have a right to expect from the others.
Yes, cryonics does fly in the face of history in some ways; but that
does not mean IGNORANCE of history. The old saw about "those who do not
read history are doomed to repeat it" is no less true for being old.
Cryonics today is run the way it is precisely because of evolution. Bad
ideas did not survive. There are no doubt many bad ideas still part of our
systems which will eventually be dropped; with luck and careful attention on
our part, they will not kill the organizations, too. Attempting to revive
bad ideas will only lead to more failures.
We do need new ideas, of course, and we hope that, as you learn more
about what is already being done in cryonics, you will be one of the people
providing new ideas. Don't give up on having ideas; but don't forget to ask
questions first. And be prepared for pretty stiff arguments even when you
are right.
Steve Bridge
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