X-Message-Number: 29443
References: <>
From: Kennita Watson <>
Subject: Re: Small musing about global oil reserves 
Date: Wed, 18 Apr 2007 03:37:41 -0700

Francois wrote:
>
> ... the problem is in the time we need to switch from oil to its
> replacement.... 1.688x10E20 joules. That's the minimum quantity of  
> energy
> we must find to completely replace oil as an energy source.
>
> Solar energy is usually considered the best long term candidate for  
> the
> source of that energy.... the Earth gets 1.37 kw per square meter from
> the Sun.... Lets further assume a very good conversion rate of  
> about 50%,
> which means we have 250 watts per square meter to work with.
>
> .... 700000 square kilometers of solar gathering surface....  
> assuming we still
> have a century's worth of usable fossil fuel reserves, ... bring  
> online
> 7000 square kilometers of solar gathering area per year, starting  
> right now,
> in order to make the transition.... Our prehistoric ancestors did  
> not run
> out of stone before bronze was ready to take its place, but we may  
> very well
> run out of oil before its replacement is ready to come online.

We don't know what that replacement(s) will be.  We may use nuclear  
fission,
nuclear fusion (I think nano-controlled fusion, personally), solar power
gathered from panels closer to the Sun, genetically engineered microbes,
and/or power sources I can't imagine yet.  Couple those with less
energy-hungry technologies -- lighter, stronger materials, virtual  
meetings,
more efficient motors, and many energy savers that I can'timagine yet  
-- and we
are are likely to avert disaster.  BTW, if we have a century's worth  
of oil and
we start transitioning away from using oil, the oil will last longer,  
giving us
more time to complete the transition.

Why I spent over an hour writing this is beyond me.  Arguing with  
people who
are determined to worry is a waste of my time and energy.  There's no  
way for
me to prove that everything will be all right, because I can't know  
and there
will surely be problems, but absent a plan of action for today, best  
I not
worry about it.  Sufficient unto the decade....

Live long and prosper,
Kennita

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