X-Message-Number: 29751
From: 
Date: Mon, 20 Aug 2007 10:30:21 EDT
Subject: Science, Timelines, and Breakthroughs vs. Widespread Applicat...

In a message dated 8/19/2007 5:00:50 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
 writes:

OK,  sorry.  I'll calm down a little about the overlyoptimistic  timeline.
But don't you understand that realistic timelines are one of the  most
important issues in cryonics?  If we claim to believe in such an  unrealistic
timeline, then we lose all credibility.  Credibility is  very important to
me.  By far the most sensible approach is to go with  the timeline that 99%
of cryobiologists accept, which is that it won't  happen for many decades.  I
didn't say centuries, I just said many  decades.  I don't know which
scientists you talked to or which  magazines you read.  But even you will
have to admit that your  prediction disagrees with the consensus of the
scientific community.  

Jordan Sparks




Hello, Jordan,
 
I accept your apology.  
 
And, I certainly do concede that 2018 for some small multicellular  animal 
and 2035 for some type of suspended animation is perhaps overoptimistic,  and 
probably far from the consensus view of cryobiologists.  
 
On the other hand, most mainstream geneticists were making very  credible 
pronouncements in the late 90s about how cloning mammals was a virtual  
impossibility or would only occur many decades in the future.  
 
Dolly the cloned sheep proved these folks were a bit off the mark. 
 
There were credible estimates of the human genome project which had  
multidecade timelines.
 
But progress...and competition, and bragging rights enabled this  massive 
undertaking to be completed some time ago.
 
I could google for the references above, or other rather humorous  "experts" 
gravely pronouncing the impossibility of flying machines or moon  landings, 
but the above are two RECENT events that most of have followed with  interest, 
and most of us on this list have personal REMEMBRANCE of the "credible  
experts" explaining why "it can't be done."  
 
The other thing I should have clarified, and should be clarified  relating to 
cloning or the human genome project, is that an experimental result  is just 
the BEGINNING,
and a long way from general application.

In other words, we may have cloned sheep, cows, and other animals, but  we do 
NOT have growable livers or kidneys, which legitimately could and probably  
WILL take decades.  Especially in medical advances, it is patently and  

sometimes tragically demonstrable that even genuine and undisputable advances  
take 
decades to filter down.  
 
We may have sequenced the human genome, but the real "heavy lifting" of  gene 
manipulation and protein folding and APPLICATION remains potentially  decades 
away.
 
So, Jordan and others, I should have made it clear that no one who is  

scientifically literate would expect the individuals being cryonically suspended
by 
today's technology are likely be resuscitated by 2018 or 2035.  
 
And, for the record, I will match my level of skepticism and genuine  
scientific orientation against most, but not all, of the readers of  cryonet.
 
And, yes, I agree that credibility is important, even vital, if cryonics  
people are to have influence in the larger world.
 
Respectfully Submitted,
 
Rudi
 

 
Rudi Richard Hoffman CFP CLU ChFC

Board Member Financial  Planning Association fpafla.org
Board Member Salvation Army  salvationarmy.org
Member Alcor Life Extension Foundation  alcor.org
Certified Financial Planner(TM) CFP Board of Standards 
Member  Libertarian Party libertarianparty.org
Member National Rifle Association  nra.org
Member World Transhumanist Association  http://transhumanism.org/
World's Leading Cryonics Insurance Provider  rudihoffman.com



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