X-Message-Number: 30066
From: 
Date: Mon, 26 Nov 2007 12:14:39 EST
Subject: correction & addendum

Correction: In my previous post I noted that D.S. had said that he knew of  
no secure basis for extrapolation other than existing data, and I said that I  
know of no basis for secure extrapolation including existing data. That was  
sloppy. By definition, extrapolation means projection of existing trends or  
data, so there is no other kind. My conclusion stands, of course--long term  
extrapolation is rarely reliable, unless you count such phenomena as the sun  
rising.
 
Addendum: D.S. acknowledged that referreed journals contain lots of errors,  
but fewer than other sources. This is probably true in general, but misses the 
 point. The point is that, in the minds of many people, the journals enjoy 

such  prestige that published conclusions are accepted uncritically, even if the
 conclusion is not only wrong but egregiously wrong. The latter was the case 
in  the Science piece I had mentioned as the possible source of D.S.'s  
statement about long term gains in life expectancy of 3 months per year. 
 
For a trend to be regarded as relatively reliable, it needs  three things. 

One is regularity on the basis of numerous data, but that alone is  not enough.
Anyone can "mine the data" to find all sorts of strange  coincidences. The 
second requirement is consistency with the larger body of  knowledge. (e.g., 
Rhine's "evidence" for psychokinesis did not comport with  well established 
physical law.) The third requirement is a rationale, some  way of tying the 

phenomenon to natural causes, quantitatively and in  detail--again something 
that 
Rhine lacked and that the "3 months" nonsense also  lacks. 
 
Robert Ettinger



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