X-Message-Number: 30078
References: <>
From: David Stodolsky <>
Subject: Re: Stodolsky's replies
Date: Wed, 28 Nov 2007 22:15:35 +0100

On 26 Nov 2007, at 17:01,  wrote:

> In reply to some of my questions, David Stodolsky wrote in part;
>
>> The goal is to get cryonics accepted as a default treatment  upon
>> deanimation.
>
>
>
> Much too vague. Accepted in what degree and how soon?

It would be completely accepted within the new organizations set up -  
let's call them Fellowships.

If social movement theory is correct (and its widespread adoption by  
advertising agencies suggests that it is) and the cryonics movement  
is ready to engage with society (as is already apparent in its  
political and other outreach activities), then we can expect a very  
rapid growth in membership as the transition to a mass movement  
proceeds. The growth would be dependent upon the degree of conflict  
with the local culture. For example, we wouldn't expect much  
religious-based opposition in the old East Germany, which has the  
lowest rate of religious belief in, at least, Europe.

There is a "democratic deficit" in Europe. This means people don't  
join political parties and elections have low turnouts. A well  
organized group can have a big influence on the political and social  
conditions in a jurisdiction, even if numbers are small. A few  
percent of the vote gets you into the legislature in most places in  
Europe, due to proportional voting, etc. This probably means that a  
movement with one percent of the population could get someone, not  
just someone they support, into the high political office. This one  
percent could be concentrated in a small town or city, and therefore  
the absolute number could be low. A town of 10,000 people could be  
strongly influenced by a fellowship of 100, if it was well organized  
(with the suggested demographic, this would be about 25 families).  
Since about a third of the population, at least of the UK, would  
choose bio-stasis if it was "gratis", these kind of numbers are  
readily achieveable with adequate start-up resources. Once political  
influence was reached, the administrative rule making to ensure  
cooperation with a bio-stasis organization or even legislation to  
make bio-stasis accepted as a default measure, wouldn't be far off in  
that jurisdiction. How long this would take is entirely dependent  
upon the amount of financial support behind the effort.

In any case, we are talking about increasing participation by  
hundreds with each effort, not just by one or two persons.



>
>> I have repeatedly developed and validated new technologies,  and
>> gotten them accepted.
>
> Others are developing cryonics  technology.

The increased effectiveness of cryonics technology is unlikely to  
have much influence upon recruitment. There are plenty who already  
believe that reversible bio-stasis has been perfected and this hasn't  
led to a vast increase. Even current methods leave the Popemobile in  
the dust :-)


>  "Validation" presumably means
> proof of effectiveness, and he isn't  going to provide that. If he  
> has gotten new
> technologies accepted, what  exactly were they, and did they have any
> similarity to cryonics in terms of  cultural resistance?
>


Acceptance in my jobs as professor / researcher means getting  
published in peer-reviewed journals. My publications range from  
optics to psychotherapy:

http://dss.secureid.org/stories/storyReader$13

Another measure of acceptance is having people read and cite the  
published work, and that also has been accomplished. Last time I  
looked, I had dozens of citations.

However, to get any info on acceptance by users, we have to look at  
the main line in my research, which has been on the role of anonymity  
in groups. The first major innovation concerned guiding dialogue in  
small groups. This was proven to benefit the users in a lot of ways  
and that software was applied by others, who requested the disk:
Stodolsky, D. (1987). Dialogue management program for the Apple II  
computer. Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, & Computers, 19,  
483-484.

http://dss.secureid.org/stories/storyReader$21


The next major effort concerned using Internet technology to improve  
scientific communication. While I haven't gotten funding to validate  
this, I have argued that an analysis of problems of the current model  
make it obvious that it would be an improvement. This was enough to  
get an independent researcher to choose it for implementation:
Stodolsky, D. (2002). Scientific publication needs a peer consensus.  
Psycoloquy, 13(2).

http://dss.secureid.org/stories/storyReader$20



Finally, my contagion vigilance work has yet to be funded, but we  
have some acceptance data from the potential participants in the last  
research proposal:

Stodolsky, D. S. (2007). Acceptance of Virus Radar. Unpublished  
Manuscript. Institute for Social Informatics, Copenhagen, Denmark:

http://files.secureid.org/dss/VirusRadar3.3.pdf

Most would agree that if someone is willing to pay 50 Euro/month out  
of a salary of 300 Euro/month, they accept the application.



In terms of cultural resistance: Anonymity tends to upset power  
relations and, in the final analysis, that is one thing we are  
talking about with the acceptance of bio-stasis/resurrection. So,  
there is some relationship.


In terms of widespread acceptance, this psycho-acoustics publication  
has had the maximum effect:

Stodolsky, D. (1970). The standardization of monaural phase.  
Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers Transactions on  
Audio and Electroacoustics, Au-18, 288-299.

The proposal was incorporated into a Standard that is probably built  
into every modern piece of audio technology. Maybe given a few more  
years some of the more recent stuff will get that kind of coverage.




>
>> The objective would be to
>> validate a working model for an organization of this type. [church or
> similar organization]
>
> The Venturist organization already exists. Many partly similar   
> organizations
> exist, such as fraternal organizations. Cryonics organizations   
> have made
> efforts to broaden their appeal and promote fellow-feeling, with  
> very  small
> success because of  our small numbers and diversity of members.

The current plan differs from the Venturist model, because it  
includes suspension funding instead of requiring it as a  
precondition. Part of the small numbers problem is overcome by a  
publicity effort and simple sign up, and retention is ensured by  
ongoing service.


> In  any event,
> what is needed is not just a generalized objective but some kind  
> of  plan or
> concept with enough detail to allow meaningful discussion.

Producing a comprehensive proposal is a major investment and the  
potential funder's requirements must be known first, if there isn't  
going to be lot of wasted effort.


>
>> An adequate test would require a few different sites, each effort
>> adjusted to the local conditions. A minimum time-frame would be 3
>> years. At least two people would need support, one at the PhD  level
>> and another for routine work / familiarity with local  conditions.
>> Overhead would include a paid-up suspension for each  of the efforts.
>> A substantial amount of legal work would need to  be done by a local
>> attorney to set up the organizational structure  and get approvals
>> from local authorities. The launch would require  a substantial
>> publicity effort, since a minimum of one-hundred  persons per site
>> would probably be required for a valid test.  Given the current state
>> of the USD, this would cost about  $800,000.This is an optimistic  
>> figure.
>
> I don't know where these numbers come from, and I don't   know why  
> a lot of
> legal work would be required.

All numbers are absolute minimums. The financial number is just two  
salaries and overhead (at 100%), which is needed for starting up  
anything like this. A detailed budget could tell what a certain  
promotional effort would cost, but it wouldn't tell how big the  
effect would be. The unknows are very large, so probably the  
uncertainies can only be reduced by a survey or a pilot project that  
generates some data.



> I have formed several  corporations with no legal
> help, and as far as I know the Venturists didn't need  any legal  
> help in
> setting up,  nor approval of local authorities. If a  physical  
> plant is
> envisioned, there might be local questions such as  zoning, but  
> there is no indication
> of a physical plant or real estate being  involved.

Setting up and getting approval for a church-like organization  
qualified to receive tax benefits is not that easy in Denmark and is  
pretty much impossible in some European countries, in which state  
churches are dominant. The legal costs will be substantial, it is  
impossible to know in advance how big they will be.

There will be real estate involved, since ongoing services need to be  
supported.



>> . Calculations have
>> shown that participation would be  economically neutral in high-tax
>> countries, such as those in  Northern Europe. That is, after taxes,
>> members would have the same  disposable income.
>
> I don't understand this. Even if donations are tax deductible,   
> that only
> reduces the net cost of the donation and doesn't eliminate it.  I   
> believe the
> Venturists have tax deductible status as a church, but again,  
> where  is the
> evidence that another such organization will do better?

You need to talk to an estate planner to get the lowdown on this.  
Large donors often end up with more disposable income after 'giving  
away' assets. There was recently a major lawsuit here because  
teachers at a school were donating their salaries back to the school  
and collecting only expenses, with the effect that the State ended up  
with the entire tab. The school won.

This also works with church schools, where parents 'donate' to the  
church and the school is free. They get 'reminded', if they fail to  
donate. If ongoing services are provided, it is easy to give  
participants a net benefit greater than their contribution, in a high  
tax area.


>
>> I have developed a
>> marriage system designed to resist the  transmission of diseases and
>> to maximize social support among  members:
>
>
> Where is the relevance? The only relevance I see here is  fostering  
> social
> support among members, and where is the evidence that this was   
> successful? Any
> numbers available?

Contracting a contagious disease is often harmful to your health. We  
are trying to keep people alive.


>
>> Also, I have reviewed the literature and performed some  statistical
>> tests on survey data related to cryonics, in order to  identify the
>> appropriate demographic.
>
> This horse is dead. We know which groups are better  recruitment  
> prospects,
> but that doesn't help us because the absolute numbers are  so small.

Absolute numbers make no difference in savings per new member.  
However, given a small number of new members the amount saved may be  
insignificant.

> Paid
> advertising doesn't work, except the Web.

Absolute numbers are small, because the service isn't being packaged  
correctly. Fixing that is part of the strategy.


> Certainly it might be  possible to
> utilize the Web more efficiently or more extensively with  
> volunteer  labor, but that
> is not D.S.'s proposal.

The Web is essential for just about any project these days. For  
example, the Web is an integrated part of the contagious disease  
management strategy.




>
>
> Also, I said that D.S.'s figure of long term increase in life   
> expectancy of
> 3 months per year was nonsense, and he replied in  part:


This line of discussion was merely to point out the need for social  
research to ensure that even current patients remain safe. If  
immortality is not perfected before cryonics becomes a political  
question, there will be trouble. While there are some optimists that  
think that we can have immortality within 50 years, most don't see it  
as a realistic possibility (Doug Skrecky's recent estimate was first  
half of the 22'nd Century and this doesn't take into account social  
factors, which seem to be the main limit these days). Even with a  
conservative growth estimate, we will see cryonics as a political  
force in 50 years. The longer we wait to deal with these issues, the  
more expensive and dangerous the confrontation will become when it  
reaches the political level.


dss


David Stodolsky    Skype: davidstodolsky

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