X-Message-Number: 30742
From: Francois <>
Subject: Re: Web site recommendation
Date: Mon, 19 May 2008 21:46:27 -0400

To David Stodolsky

>There is no evidence that there will be a 'singularity'

Actually, there is some evidence that there won't be, sort of. Earth is not 
the only planet in our galaxy. According to currently observed planetary 
systems, most of those planets would be older than Earth, the greatest rate 
of planet formation having occured about 4 to 5 billion years before the 
Earth formed. This means that there should be plenty of planets out there 
who had the opportunity to evolve sentient lifeforms that could have gone 
through a singularity billions of years before us. We see no evidence of the 
super galaxy spanning civilization that would have resulted from such an 
event. Therefore we can conclude that no civilization in our galaxy ever 
reached the singularity, or that none has survived the event. This 
conclusion is obviously not very solid, but it is at least based on actual 
observations.

>There is no certainty that oil is a fossil fuel, as opposed to a result of 
>the
>evolution of methane from within the Earth.

This distinction appears to me irrelevant. Either way, we are obviously 
pumping out oil faster than it is being replenished, and therefore oil 
reserves are declining.

>On the other hand, it is clear that oil company propaganda has
>promoted the idea that oil is running out. It is also clear that many
>of the 'public interest' and 'research' organizations that deal with
>this question are supported financially by the oil companies. It is
>also clear that oil company profits and influence over the US
>Government have never been greater. Further, historically speaking we
>also see oil shortages and rising prices when the oil companies get
>their man into the White House. Exxon-Mobil has been the biggest
>contributor to the Bush election campaigns.

I see a much better and less sinister process at work here. Demand for oil 
has greatly increased during the past few years. China, India and other 
Asian countries are developing fast, catching up with the developped western 
world. They need energy to fuel that development, and a great deal of that 
energy is supplied by oil. Oil reserves are not actually going down yet, it 
is rather the capacity to extract, transport and refine that oil that is 
being stretched to its limit, and beyond. A little market speculation, a few 
'incidents' like hurricane Katrina knocking out oil refineries in the gulf 
of mexico, and prices have nowhere to go but up. Of course, the war in Irak, 
terrorist threats and general unrest in the Middle East do not help the 
situation.

To Keith

>That's essentially my expectation.  And how will cryonics fare with
>"severe rationing of . . . energy and travel"?

Cryonics does not strike me as an activity that requires much energy. I 
mean, how much power do you need to keep well insulated dewars at liquid 
nitrogen temperature? A few wind turbines could probably supply the energy 
needed to run hundreds, if not thousands of such dewars. However, travel 
restrictions, and social unrest caused by resource shortages would be far 
more problematic. I can offer no advice here, except to start preparing now 
for those future problems. As the president said in the movie Deap Impact, 
we should hope for the best, but prepare for the worse.


Francois

Good health is merely the slowest
possible rate at which one can die. 

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