X-Message-Number: 31635
From: "John de Rivaz" <>
References: <>
Subject: Re: 60 years on, 60 years back
Date: Sat, 25 Apr 2009 11:40:02 +0100


On CryoNet, David Kekich speculated about 60 years on as opposed to 60 years 
back.


60 years back, people looking ahead 60 years made predictions that in some 
fields were wildly tame compared to reality, and in others wildly optimistic. A 
solution to the problem of aging has oft been proposed "just over the time 
horizon", but it has never appeared yet.


Transport has been advancing since around 1800 with a slow start. The first 
"horseless carriages" appeared then, but were ludicrously slow and virtually 
impossible to drive. It was 100 years later that Benz produced what is 
recognisable as a car, but he believed only 2000 people in the world would be 
capable of driving. (Considering the number of road casualties he may well be 
right.)  Yet only 30 years later the Germans were considering a "people's car" 
for everyone to drive, as was Ford in the USA.


60 years ago the progress in computers that actually happened would have been 
the speculation of eccentrics, yet it was widely believed that by the beginning 
of the next millennium most people would have private aircraft. Sci fi writers 
such as Bradbury and Heinlein were even writing about private space vehicles, 
capable to getting to Mars and even further, being available by 2000. This could
have been an extrapolation from the rapid advance in cars from 1900 to 1930. 


My point is that advances in private transport has started to deviate 
substantially from expectation. It may well be that rapid advances in computing 
as have recently occurred may be followed by a similar slow down. Roughly 
speaking, nanotechnology will be about 100 years old around the middle of this 
century (if you count from Feynman's writings rather than Drexler's). Maybe the 
"growth spurt" seen with cars will occur then, but hopefully sooner.


I anticipate that in the next 60 years there will be unexpected advances, and 
unexpected failures to advance.

-- 
Sincerely, John de Rivaz:  http://John.deRivaz.com for websites including
Cryonics Europe, Longevity Report, The Venturists, Porthtowan, Alec Harley
Reeves - inventor, Arthur Bowker - potter, de Rivaz genealogy,  Nomad .. and
more

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