X-Message-Number: 31638 From: David Stodolsky <> Subject: Re: 60 years on, 60 years back Date: Sun, 26 Apr 2009 14:50:14 +0200 References: <> On 26 Apr 2009, at 11:00 AM, John de Rivaz wrote: > 60 years ago the progress in computers that actually happened would > have been the speculation of eccentrics, yet it was widely believed > that by the beginning of the next millennium most people would have > private aircraft. Sci fi writers such as Bradbury and Heinlein were > even writing about private space vehicles, capable to getting to > Mars and even further, being available by 2000. This could have been > an extrapolation from the rapid advance in cars from 1900 to 1930. It is probably more instructive to analyze the cause of the delays in space transportation than just noting what the writers said was off. The 1960's space race was a one-trick pony and when men landed on the Moon, the US had recovered its status. The Space Program was effectively closed down by budget cuts. This led to money saving strategies and the resulting disasters among other things. For example, the last NASA supported hibernation/suspension research ceased at the beginning of the 1980's. Given the political will, we could very well have achieved what the writers predicted and perhaps be a lot closer to reversal of human suspension today. The other obvious variable is the number of scientists. A vast number of potential scientists live in countries so poor that they never even get an education. Even in the rich countries, hard sciences are loosing ground. The only bright spot on the horizon is the millions of new scientists coming on-line (publishing) in China. Taking all this into account, I'd say we probably have only had ten per cent of scientists in action compared to our potential as a civilization. So, it is the political-economic factors that have been the main determinant of progress. dss David Stodolsky Skype: davidstodolsky Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=31638