X-Message-Number: 32337
Date: Thu, 28 Jan 2010 14:28:44 -0800
From: Brook Norton <>
Subject: cryonics-calculator trade study


A cryonics calculator was recently hosted online ( cryonicscalculator.com ) and 
allows visitors to plug in numbers like age when deanimate, risk of autopsy, 
etc, etc, and calculates the overall odds of cryonics working for that visitor.


With my opinion of the inputs, I get a 60% overall chance of success. I varied 
the inputs to see their sensitivity to making success more likely, and got these
results (changing only one thing at a time from the baseline):
1) 60% success - no changes; baseline
2) 63% success - 100 years-old instead of 90 for deanimation age

3) 63% success - 0% chance instead of 5% that are killed when deanimate 
(autopsy, fire, remote deanimation, etc)

4) 75% success - risks cut in half for disasters, including natural disasters 
(fire, flood, etc), storage failure (leak, etc), financial failure, and 
regulatory interference

5) 68% success - 80 years instead of 100 for most likely time that reanimation 
technology will become available


Conclusion? As individuals, we can significantly influence items 2 and 3, so be 
vigilant to do so. Organizations such as Alcor and CI can significantly 
influence items 3 (by remote standby), 4, and 5 and so we can all be vigilant to
keep our organizations working on the most important issues.


Cryonicscalculator.com is designed to help individuals evaluate how to integrate
cryonics involvement into their lives. If cryonics only had an overall chance 
of success of, say, 5%, I wouldn't be very inspired to make big sacrifices for 
the betterment of cryonics. However, very fortunately, it looks like our time is
coming and that we are truly "in the hunt" for making cryonics work. So every 
sacrifice made by cryonicists now, has a good chance of making a large "return 
on investment".

Brook Norton

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