X-Message-Number: 4835
Date: Sun, 3 Sep 1995 23:27:57 -0500
From: Jim Davidson <>


Subject: Circumspice & MLM
X-Mailer: AIR Mail 3.X (SPRY, Inc.)

Mike Darwin makes an interesting an useful point, that both real and virtual 
communities have a way of going "poof" and disappearing overnight.  Examples 
from American history alone include Roanoke, resettlement of the Native 
American populations, capture of white female settlers by Native Americans, 
the Donner Party, the Boston Massacre, the massacre at Wounded Knee...indeed 
just about all the events associated with the term "massacre."  You didn't 
have to be Jewish in Germany to see your community wiped out; even ethnic 
Germans suffered under the Nazis.

However, we do work at improving our condition, so recognizing that virtual 
communities can also go away, with far less violence or rationale, is 
important.  It is necessary to consider what keeps virtual communities (e.g., 
Cryonet) together.  One of those things is the tendency of the cryonics 
community as a whole to stick together in spite of the inevitable internecine 
squabbles.

Why do we stick together?  We share a common vision.  That vision is one of 
great hopefulness.  In my view, the vision of cryonics includes the idea that 
humans may one day be free from death; that we can conquer the limits of space 
and time by being free from death; that we can bring to bear the resources of 
the universe on the circumstances of the human condition; that we can exceed 
our biological constraints and direct our own destinies.  It is hard to 
imagine not making common cause with anyone who shares these ideals.  

There are always differences of opinion on matters of method.  That is not 
only inevitable, it is desirable.  Competition is the only way to achieve 
robust efforts; central planning has a demonstrated set of limitations.

With particular regard to the method of marketing, I will have to agree with 
Keith Lynch on the bad reputation to be incurred with any sort of identifiably 
"multi-level" marketing approach.  MLM is based on a very different conception 
than a traditional sales and marketing organization.

In MLM, the reward system incentivizes developing an ever-deeper sales 
organization.  I have analyzed several MLM systems as part of my academic 
interest in marketing.  So far, I have not found one that is forthcoming about 
the inherent limitation of population in developing unlimited tiers of 
salespeople.  Depending on how many people are on each person's first tier, 
the total population of the Earth is needed to fulfill the staffing 
requirements of the lowest possible level.  For example, with 5 people working 
for me, and 5 people working for each of them, continuing in this manner only 
permits 15 levels (including the one with me alone) before 6 billion people 
are needed.  One can only imagine to whom those 6 billion would sell.  As in 
poker, so too in MLM, the words of Robert Heinlein ring true, "There are more 
optimists than mathematicians..."  Of course, most MLM "plans" only permit 7 
levels or so to be developed, leading the optimistic to believe that they 
could be so fortunate as to have 18,750 people in their total organization.

Unfortunately, there are usually a few thousand people involved in any MLM 
plan, each pursuing 5 individuals for each of 7 levels.  If only 10,000 folks 
are involved when you join, you should be aware that 188 million people, 
roughly the working population of the United States, would be needed to 
complete through the 7th level.

What actually makes MLM "work?"  It is the eagerness with which hundreds of 
thousands of MLM enthusiasts pursue such schemes that makes most of them 
successful for the top few who orchestrate these "systems."  By requiring each 
entrant to purchase a minimum amount of merchandise, the pyramid is built not 
on sales to people who actually need or desire the products, but to hopeful 
"entrepreneurs" seeking to build their own sales empires.  Except for the top 
few layers of rs of the MLM network, most of those choosing to participate are 
chasing a chimera.

Having said all these things against MLM, I do think further thought and 
action is needed in developing better marketing methods for cryonics.  We have 
a product to sell, and our marketing needs work.  The steps to effective 
marketing are (1) plan the strategy, (2) research the facts, (3) revise the 
strategic plan, (4) research tactical approaches, (5) plan the tactics, and 
(6) implement them.  Tactics would include publicity, advertising, cooperative 
marketing, distribution, sales, and promotion.  To some extent, cryonics 
groups have been utilizing each of these tactics with little attention to 
either strategy or market research.

Several research tools suggest themselves, but that seems to be better left to 
another post at a later date.

Jim Davidson
http://www.phoenix.net/~medical/cryonics.html


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