X-Message-Number: 4835 Date: Sun, 3 Sep 1995 23:27:57 -0500 From: Jim Davidson <> Subject: Circumspice & MLM X-Mailer: AIR Mail 3.X (SPRY, Inc.) Mike Darwin makes an interesting an useful point, that both real and virtual communities have a way of going "poof" and disappearing overnight. Examples from American history alone include Roanoke, resettlement of the Native American populations, capture of white female settlers by Native Americans, the Donner Party, the Boston Massacre, the massacre at Wounded Knee...indeed just about all the events associated with the term "massacre." You didn't have to be Jewish in Germany to see your community wiped out; even ethnic Germans suffered under the Nazis. However, we do work at improving our condition, so recognizing that virtual communities can also go away, with far less violence or rationale, is important. It is necessary to consider what keeps virtual communities (e.g., Cryonet) together. One of those things is the tendency of the cryonics community as a whole to stick together in spite of the inevitable internecine squabbles. Why do we stick together? We share a common vision. That vision is one of great hopefulness. In my view, the vision of cryonics includes the idea that humans may one day be free from death; that we can conquer the limits of space and time by being free from death; that we can bring to bear the resources of the universe on the circumstances of the human condition; that we can exceed our biological constraints and direct our own destinies. It is hard to imagine not making common cause with anyone who shares these ideals. There are always differences of opinion on matters of method. That is not only inevitable, it is desirable. Competition is the only way to achieve robust efforts; central planning has a demonstrated set of limitations. With particular regard to the method of marketing, I will have to agree with Keith Lynch on the bad reputation to be incurred with any sort of identifiably "multi-level" marketing approach. MLM is based on a very different conception than a traditional sales and marketing organization. In MLM, the reward system incentivizes developing an ever-deeper sales organization. I have analyzed several MLM systems as part of my academic interest in marketing. So far, I have not found one that is forthcoming about the inherent limitation of population in developing unlimited tiers of salespeople. Depending on how many people are on each person's first tier, the total population of the Earth is needed to fulfill the staffing requirements of the lowest possible level. For example, with 5 people working for me, and 5 people working for each of them, continuing in this manner only permits 15 levels (including the one with me alone) before 6 billion people are needed. One can only imagine to whom those 6 billion would sell. As in poker, so too in MLM, the words of Robert Heinlein ring true, "There are more optimists than mathematicians..." Of course, most MLM "plans" only permit 7 levels or so to be developed, leading the optimistic to believe that they could be so fortunate as to have 18,750 people in their total organization. Unfortunately, there are usually a few thousand people involved in any MLM plan, each pursuing 5 individuals for each of 7 levels. If only 10,000 folks are involved when you join, you should be aware that 188 million people, roughly the working population of the United States, would be needed to complete through the 7th level. What actually makes MLM "work?" It is the eagerness with which hundreds of thousands of MLM enthusiasts pursue such schemes that makes most of them successful for the top few who orchestrate these "systems." By requiring each entrant to purchase a minimum amount of merchandise, the pyramid is built not on sales to people who actually need or desire the products, but to hopeful "entrepreneurs" seeking to build their own sales empires. Except for the top few layers of rs of the MLM network, most of those choosing to participate are chasing a chimera. Having said all these things against MLM, I do think further thought and action is needed in developing better marketing methods for cryonics. We have a product to sell, and our marketing needs work. The steps to effective marketing are (1) plan the strategy, (2) research the facts, (3) revise the strategic plan, (4) research tactical approaches, (5) plan the tactics, and (6) implement them. Tactics would include publicity, advertising, cooperative marketing, distribution, sales, and promotion. To some extent, cryonics groups have been utilizing each of these tactics with little attention to either strategy or market research. Several research tools suggest themselves, but that seems to be better left to another post at a later date. Jim Davidson http://www.phoenix.net/~medical/cryonics.html Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=4835